Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 16, 2016Burleigh County, Kidder County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2016, 1:21 PM CDT for Burleigh County, Kidder County, North Dakota. It was in force for 54 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2016, 1:21 PM CDT (18:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2016, 2:15 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Burleigh County, ND, Kidder County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 16, 1:25 PM CDT	HAIL 0.5	8 Nw Menoken, ND	ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
Jul 16, 1:30 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	Wing, ND	ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.
Jul 16, 1:40 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 Ne Arena, ND	MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS. LASTED 5 MINUTES... ESTIMATED 60 MPH GUSTS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 9 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 16, 1:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -319 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1366 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

111 
WUUS53 KBIS 161821
SVRBIS
NDC015-043-161915-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0149.160716T1821Z-160716T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN KIDDER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 120 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF WING TO 7 MILES EAST OF LAKE
  HARMON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTHERN BISMARCK...MENOKEN...WING...STERLING...TUTTLE...REGAN...
  ROBINSON...MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...
  MCKENZIE...AND ARENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4688 10089 4690 10091 4695 10091 4729 10029
      4731 9951 4673 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 269DEG 16KT 4725 10028 4696 10082 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

2 follow-up statements

629 
WWUS53 KBIS 161839
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDC015-043-161915-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-160716T1915Z/
KIDDER ND-BURLEIGH ND-
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KIDDER AND CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTIES...

AT 137 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WING TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AT 130 PM REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS
         IN WING. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MENOKEN...WING...STERLING...TUTTLE...REGAN...ROBINSON...MCDOWELL DAM
RECREATION AREA...MCKENZIE...BALDWIN AND ARENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4689 10082 4698 10086 4729 10029 4731 9951
      4673 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 269DEG 16KT 4725 10020 4696 10074 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

880 
WWUS53 KBIS 161854
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
154 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDC015-043-161915-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-160716T1915Z/
KIDDER ND-BURLEIGH ND-
154 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KIDDER AND EASTERN BURLEIGH COUNTIES...

AT 153 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTTLE TO 9 MILES NORTH OF
MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WING...TUTTLE...ROBINSON...MCKENZIE AND ARENA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4685 10058 4691 10069 4728 10013 4731 9951
      4676 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 269DEG 16KT 4725 10011 4696 10065 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 12:52 PM CDT, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 12:52 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Quick update for observed radar trends through 1715 UTC, blended
to the 13-15 UTC HRRR/HRRRX. See SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1297
for details.

UPDATE Issued at 834 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

The 09-12Z HRRR/HRRRX continue to support a potential increase in
convection across south central North Dakota by 17-18Z along the
inverted surface trough. Surface dewpoints are forecast to rise
into the lower to mid 60s leading to ML CAPE values around 2000
j/kg south central, within an environment characterized by deep
layer shear of 30-40 kts. Thus, supercells are possible with all
severe threats possible, including the potential of a tornado or
two given low LCLs and 0-1 km shear around 15-20kts. The 00Z SSEO
does has a 20 percent neighborhood probability of UH greater than
100 m2/s2 south central today, which would signal the potential
for a more organized severe weather event per local studies.

UPDATE Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

No changes required for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Current surface analysis places low over north central Wyoming
while high remains over the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
Upper level analysis places Fujiwhara lows near northern Hudson
Bay while a compact low pushes along the international border near
the continental divide. Weak ridge remains over the area with
vigorous short wave pushing into western North Dakota from
Montana. This continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms.

For today...morning showers/storms will continue to push to the
east-northeast this morning as suggested by latest high-res
guidance. With limited instability and shear to work with, storms
should remain on the tame side.

Later in the day is when the storms could get more interesting.
Upper low continues to slowly track to the east while the next
potent short wave ejects and gets wrapped into broad cyclonic flow
to the southeast of aforementioned Hudson Bay system. This will
result in the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Strongest
instability is expected to remain over South Dakota, though models
continue to show an area of ~2 kj/kg cape developing over southern
portions of the area. Still some question on how far north this
will develop with the fly in the ointment being the effect the
morning convection will have on this along with lingering cloud
cover and cooler temperatures to the north of a warm front. With
that said, the potential for severe weather remains, especially
given the increasing deep layer shear through the day into the
evening (50kt+ 0-6km bulk). Showers/storms will work towards the
east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will linger mainly over northern
locations where broad cyclonic flow remains to the southwest of
Hudson Bay system. Some additional showers/storms will be
possible in the evening over the southwest as another short wave
sneaks through the flow. Limited instability should keep storms on
the tame side.

Broad ridge builds into the area to start the upcoming work week
with a warming trend developing. Expect well above average
temperatures throughout the area by mid-week. Occasional weak
disturbances moving through the ridge will bring low chances for
thunderstorms to portions of the area from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across western and central
North Dakota today. Some storms may be severe across southern
North Dakota today with large hail, damaging winds and LIFR
conditions. KBIS and KJMS are at most risk to be impacted by
severe storms. MVFR/IFR fog and stratus are possible at KBIS and
KJMS late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 12:48 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-171800-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-171800-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 10:58 AM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1058 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             10 N GOLDEN VALLEY      47.44N 102.06W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND WAS WHITE WITH HAIL.

&&

AYD

Local storm report, Jul 16, 11:12 AM CDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1112 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW HAZEN             47.31N 101.69W
07/16/2016  M1.44 INCH       MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.44 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES. THERE WAS
            PEA SIZE HAIL THAT LASTED A VERY SHORT TIME.
            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            45 MINUTES.

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE CROSS RANCH STATE  47.24N 100.96W
07/16/2016  E60 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             3 NE CROSS RANCH STATE  47.24N 100.96W
07/16/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL AND GROUND WAS NEARLY
            COVERED IN HAIL.

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:26 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SANGER            47.20N 100.95W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:20 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     HAIL             2 SW BALDWIN            47.00N 100.78W
07/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 60 MPH ESTIMATED WINDS.

&&

ZH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 8:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	48 min
Jul 16, 9:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	29 min
Jul 16, 10:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean, Mercer	30 min
Jul 16, 10:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean, Oliver	48 min
Jul 16, 11:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Oliver, Sheridan	39 min
Jul 16, 11:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Sheridan	61 min
Jul 16, 12:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Morton, Oliver	41 min
Jul 16, 2:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Stutsman	58 min
Jul 16, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Kidder, Stutsman	49 min
Jul 16, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	61 min
Jul 16, 3:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	46 min
Jul 16, 4:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder	58 min
Jul 16, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Morton, Sioux	43 min
Jul 16, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	32 min
Jul 16, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan	62 min
Jul 16, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	34 min
Jul 16, 6:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	43 min
Jul 16, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure	29 min
Jul 16, 6:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.