Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 16, 2016Stutsman County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 16, 2016, 4:28 PM CDT for Stutsman County, North Dakota. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2016, 4:28 PM CDT (21:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Stutsman County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -319 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1366 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 16, 2:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening highlight the
short term forecast.

As of 1945 UTC, the previous QLCS has now morphed into a
supercell across Kidder County, with additional cells attempting
to develop south central and southwest in the vicinity of the
surface trough. This has generally been well depicted by the
HRRR/HRRRX through the day, especially their 18 UTC iterations.
The mesoscale environment is characterized by ML CAPE of 1500-2000
j/kg with effective deep layer shear of 35-45 kts perpendicular to
the boundary, supportive of continued discrete supercells. All
threats of severe weather are possible, including a possible
tornado or two given low LCLs and increasing low level helicity by
early evening. For western North Dakota, convection from Montanamay
cross the border around 00 UTC, however, uncertainty remains how
strong this convection will be.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

A warm up Tuesday through Thursday highlights the extended
forecast.

The 12 UTC ensemble and deterministic global and ensemble suites
are in agreement on a building upper level central CONUS high this
coming week, supporting a potential warm up into the 90s for most
locations Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across western and central
North Dakota today. Some storms may be severe across southern
North Dakota today with large hail, damaging winds and LIFR
conditions. KBIS and KJMS are at most risk to be impacted by
severe storms. MVFR/IFR fog and stratus are possible at KBIS and
KJMS late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 2:28 PM CDT, 2 hours before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-171930-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /128 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-171930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
228 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /128 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PJA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
158 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             1 NE ARENA              47.14N 100.14W
07/16/2016  U1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS.
            LASTED 5 MINUTES... ESTIMATED 60 MPH GUSTS.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE DAWSON            46.93N 99.71W
07/16/2016  E60 MPH          KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH ESTIMATED WINDS
            GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N DAWSON              46.90N 99.75W
07/16/2016                   KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            DOCK ON LAKE 5 PICKED UP AND SLAMMED AGAINST
            A CABIN DOWNSTREAM. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 3:44 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ037-162130-
STUTSMAN-
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BUCHANAN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...SPIRITWOOD LAKE...BUCHANAN...SPIRITWOOD...PINGREE...
COURTENAY...ELDRIDGE AND WINDSOR.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4683 9910 4714 9912 4725 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4689 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 259DEG 24KT 4701 9892

MATHEWS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:07 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             BUCHANAN                47.06N 98.83W
07/16/2016  M0.88 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

KS

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:28 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
428 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ037-162200-
STUTSMAN ND-
428 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPIRITWOOD LAKE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMESTOWN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...YPSILANTI...SPIRITWOOD LAKE AND SPIRITWOOD.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4678 9893 4712 9861 4714 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4678 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 262DEG 20KT 4707 9859 4685 9880

HEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 8:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	48 min
Jul 16, 9:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	29 min
Jul 16, 10:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean, Mercer	30 min
Jul 16, 10:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean, Oliver	48 min
Jul 16, 11:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Oliver, Sheridan	39 min
Jul 16, 11:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Sheridan	61 min
Jul 16, 12:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Morton, Oliver	41 min
Jul 16, 1:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder	54 min
Jul 16, 2:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Stutsman	58 min
Jul 16, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Kidder, Stutsman	49 min
Jul 16, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	61 min
Jul 16, 3:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	46 min
Jul 16, 4:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder	58 min
Jul 16, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Morton, Sioux	43 min
Jul 16, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan	62 min
Jul 16, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	34 min
Jul 16, 6:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	43 min
Jul 16, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure	29 min
Jul 16, 6:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.