Gale Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

828 
FZAK52 PAFG 122215
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131400-
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. A 985 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF TIN CITY AS A 993 MB LOW BY 3 PM WED.

$$

PKZ200-131400-
NORTON SOUND-
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-131400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1
NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
115 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CF/DA JAN 16

777 
FZAK52 PAFG 131322
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140030-
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A 987 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF NOME WILL MOVE
TO SHISHMAREF AS A 995 LOW BY 3PM WED...TO 80 NM WEST OF POINT
HOPE AS A 1004 MB LOW BY 3AM THU...TO 120 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE
AS A 1014 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ200-140030-
NORTON SOUND-
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-140030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-140030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
422 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW.VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

JAN 16

058 
FZAK52 PAFG 132313
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-141415-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A 994 NEAR TELLER WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST
OF KIVALINA AS A 1015 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ200-141415-
NORTON SOUND-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-141415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-141415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-141415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CF/EWP JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 AM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND WESTERN
CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ND NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND. WEAK SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRI
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AS SHORT WAVES TROUGHS MOVE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE ARCTIC SLOPE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL AND FAIRLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW WEAKENS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-16C OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
COOL 2-4C TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. THIS WILL KEEP NE WINDS AND AREAS OF
FLURRIES AND FOG ALONG THE COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST.

A 985 MB LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE TO SCAMMON BAY BY
3PM TUE AS A 985 MB LOW...TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF EMMONAK AS A 989
MB LOW BY 3AM WED...TO SHISHMAREF AS A 995 MB LOW BY 3PM WED...AND
TO NEAR POINT HOPE AS A 1014 MB LOW BY 3PM THU. WILL SEE WINDS OF
20-30KT AROUND THIS LOW ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW ZONES 214 AND 213 THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL
GUSTS TO 35KT IN ZONES 214 AND 213 TODAY WILL CAUSE LOCALLY LOW
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TO MINCHUMINA
BY 3PM TUE...TO THE LOW TO POINT HOPE TO MINCHUMINA BY 3AM
WED...TO THE LOW TO WAINWRIGHT TO MINCHUMINA BY 3PM WED...AND TO
BARROW NORTHWAY BY 3PM THU. EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT.

THERE ARE EAST WINDS 20G35KT ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM
WED. AFTER THAT THE GFS TAKES LOW FROM BERING STRAIT A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM AND ECMF. WILL USE GFS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.
&&

JB JAN 16