Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 AM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND WESTERN
CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ND NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND. WEAK SOUTH FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRI
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AS SHORT WAVES TROUGHS MOVE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE ARCTIC SLOPE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL AND FAIRLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW WEAKENS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -3C OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-16C OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
COOL 2-4C TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. THIS WILL KEEP NE WINDS AND AREAS OF
FLURRIES AND FOG ALONG THE COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST.

A 985 MB LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE TO SCAMMON BAY BY
3PM TUE AS A 985 MB LOW...TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF EMMONAK AS A 989
MB LOW BY 3AM WED...TO SHISHMAREF AS A 995 MB LOW BY 3PM WED...AND
TO NEAR POINT HOPE AS A 1014 MB LOW BY 3PM THU. WILL SEE WINDS OF
20-30KT AROUND THIS LOW ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW ZONES 214 AND 213 THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL
GUSTS TO 35KT IN ZONES 214 AND 213 TODAY WILL CAUSE LOCALLY LOW
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO THE LOW TO SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TO MINCHUMINA
BY 3PM TUE...TO THE LOW TO POINT HOPE TO MINCHUMINA BY 3AM
WED...TO THE LOW TO WAINWRIGHT TO MINCHUMINA BY 3PM WED...AND TO
BARROW NORTHWAY BY 3PM THU. EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT.

THERE ARE EAST WINDS 20G35KT ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM
WED. AFTER THAT THE GFS TAKES LOW FROM BERING STRAIT A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM AND ECMF. WILL USE GFS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.
&&

JB JAN 16