Small Craft Advisory 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

089 
FZAK51 PAFC 170026
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171300-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1017
MB LOW DEVELOPS 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA THU MORNING AND
DRIFTS TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA AT 1013 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171300-
PORT VALDEZ-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171300-
VALDEZ ARM-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171300-
CHINIAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171300-
MARMOT BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

666 
FZAK51 PAFC 171249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180145-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1017
MB LOW DEVELOPS 160 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND DRIFTS
TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 1011 MB LATE FRI NIGHT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-180145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180145-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180145-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180145-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180145-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FOOT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

982 
FZAK51 PAFC 180032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1017 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA DRIFTS TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CORDOVA AT 1013 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CORDOVA AT 1007 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181400-
PORT VALDEZ-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181400-
VALDEZ ARM-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181400-
CHINIAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181400-
MARMOT BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper level flow is weak today over the mainland part of the state
as the upper level low in eastern Russia has retrograded westward
and the jet stream is far to the south of the mainland part of the state
where it is strengthening a low in the North Pacific.
An upper level trough digging southward in the Sea of Okhotsk is
bringing some jet support to the western Bering Sea where a front
is moving into the western Aleutians.
The old occluded low in the Gulf of Alaska continues to produce
bands of rain showers in the Gulf but is weakening and moving
southeastward and out of the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement on a synoptic scale with very
little to talk about. The issue that is worth watching on the
models is the upper level low that will be in the interior of the
state tonight and drops southward and over the Kenai Peninsula
Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF are moving this feature over Cook
Inlet and west of Anchorage on its way southward and, while
increasing cloud cover some, keeping it dry under this upper level
low. There is some question if there really will be no snowfall
associated with it. If the low does move a little farther
eastward as the NAM depicts there is a chance for some light
snowfall over the Anchorage and Matanuska valley Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The next few model runs may give a better
idea as to where this upper low will track and whether it may
produce some snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low over the southeast Gulf continues to push further
southeastward this evening, showers and gusty winds over the
northern gulf will taper off by tonight. An upper level trough
that will move quickly over Cook Inlet region from west to east
overnight tonight, will bring widespread cloudy conditions and the
chance at a few showers along the mountains for Wednesday. As the
parent upper low over the interior moves southward over the Cook
Inlet region by Thursday morning, bringing the potential for some
light snow to fall over the area. However, models are struggling
with the exact placement of this low and QPF amounts, which
ultimately effects if the light snow will fall over the Anchorage
Bowl or across Cook Inlet.

Widespread cold air advection is expected to occur and support
gusty outflow gap winds around the Prince William Sound region and
over parts of interior Southcentral through Thursday. As a result,
temperatures are expected to cool over the next few days across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Gusty north winds inland taper down late evening as surface
ridging builds into the southwest. Subsidence along the ridge
brings a colder and drier air mass to the region overnight.
Meanwhile, a warm moist air mass advects along the eastern Bering
which will warm temperature profiles aloft along the Kuskokwim,
aiding in patchy fog development after midnight. A low level jet
increasing tonight along the western side of the Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges should keep fog away from coastal Bristol Bay.
Rather benign conditions are expected into Thursday morning as the
ridge slowly shifts across central Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A surface low moves the weak front across the central Bering into
the northeastern waters tonight and dissipates on Wednesday. The
next storm force front begins to push into the West Aleutians
tonight. Winds increase out of the southeast around midnight and
persist through early Wednesday afternoon then become southwest
behind the front. The front makes slow progression east as the
parent low remains anchored over Kamchatka. The boundary weakens
as it moves along the central to eastern waters late Thursday.
Precipitation will mainly be rain with this warm core system with
a mix of rain and snow along the boundary as it becomes diffuse
along the eastern waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It is clear that the Bering ridge,responsible for separating the
two domains into separate weather scenarios, is breaking down.
This will usher in a period of rapidly progressive systems at
least through the middle of next week.

There remains good model agreement Thu night through Fri as the
mainland AK ridge begins to retreat and the Bering front
dissipates over southwest AK and the Akpen. A weak low will also
remain over the extreme northern Gulf. By Fri night the latter low
dissipates, and a succession of lows and waves make their way
across the North Pacific to the Aleutians. This is where the
models have difficulty resolving and moving the lows. Some models
have a series of lows moving east while others consolidate the
features into one large central Aleutian low.

The forecast through Fri night utilized the Nam, but then the
ensemble approach of WPC was used to describe the next low as it
moves, from near Attu on Fri to the central Aleutians on Sat, and
then to the central Gulf on Mon. This low leaves the area on Tue,
while the next low leaves Kamchatka on Mon, reaches the central
Bering Tue, and then continues to the Gulf.

As the lows move east they will spread some rain and snow showers
across the Aleutians and southwest AK. Scattered rain and snow
showers are also expected mainly along the north Gulf coast
through Sat. There should be a break in precipitation beginning Sat
night until it returns with the second low early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 178 411. Gales 130 131 132 175 176 177 185 352 412
413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS