Gale Warning 668, NWS Anchorage, AK

796 
FZAK62 PAFC 170031
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171430-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY. A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 58N 168W
EARLY FRI AND DRIFTS TO 58N 165W AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

340 
FZAK62 PAFC 171239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180245-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY FRIDAY. A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 57N 167W
EARLY FRI AND DRIFTS TO 54N 156W WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A 1000
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES 51N 180W LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

435 
FZAK62 PAFC 180031
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181445-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY FRIDAY. A 1007 MB NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SAT MORNING AT 993 MB. A 993 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS LOW NEAR 53N 177W AT 989 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A
1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW LATE FRI MOVES TO 53N 163W AT 988 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper level flow is weak today over the mainland part of the state
as the upper level low in eastern Russia has retrograded westward
and the jet stream is far to the south of the mainland part of the state
where it is strengthening a low in the North Pacific.
An upper level trough digging southward in the Sea of Okhotsk is
bringing some jet support to the western Bering Sea where a front
is moving into the western Aleutians.
The old occluded low in the Gulf of Alaska continues to produce
bands of rain showers in the Gulf but is weakening and moving
southeastward and out of the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement on a synoptic scale with very
little to talk about. The issue that is worth watching on the
models is the upper level low that will be in the interior of the
state tonight and drops southward and over the Kenai Peninsula
Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF are moving this feature over Cook
Inlet and west of Anchorage on its way southward and, while
increasing cloud cover some, keeping it dry under this upper level
low. There is some question if there really will be no snowfall
associated with it. If the low does move a little farther
eastward as the NAM depicts there is a chance for some light
snowfall over the Anchorage and Matanuska valley Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The next few model runs may give a better
idea as to where this upper low will track and whether it may
produce some snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low over the southeast Gulf continues to push further
southeastward this evening, showers and gusty winds over the
northern gulf will taper off by tonight. An upper level trough
that will move quickly over Cook Inlet region from west to east
overnight tonight, will bring widespread cloudy conditions and the
chance at a few showers along the mountains for Wednesday. As the
parent upper low over the interior moves southward over the Cook
Inlet region by Thursday morning, bringing the potential for some
light snow to fall over the area. However, models are struggling
with the exact placement of this low and QPF amounts, which
ultimately effects if the light snow will fall over the Anchorage
Bowl or across Cook Inlet.

Widespread cold air advection is expected to occur and support
gusty outflow gap winds around the Prince William Sound region and
over parts of interior Southcentral through Thursday. As a result,
temperatures are expected to cool over the next few days across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Gusty north winds inland taper down late evening as surface
ridging builds into the southwest. Subsidence along the ridge
brings a colder and drier air mass to the region overnight.
Meanwhile, a warm moist air mass advects along the eastern Bering
which will warm temperature profiles aloft along the Kuskokwim,
aiding in patchy fog development after midnight. A low level jet
increasing tonight along the western side of the Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges should keep fog away from coastal Bristol Bay.
Rather benign conditions are expected into Thursday morning as the
ridge slowly shifts across central Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A surface low moves the weak front across the central Bering into
the northeastern waters tonight and dissipates on Wednesday. The
next storm force front begins to push into the West Aleutians
tonight. Winds increase out of the southeast around midnight and
persist through early Wednesday afternoon then become southwest
behind the front. The front makes slow progression east as the
parent low remains anchored over Kamchatka. The boundary weakens
as it moves along the central to eastern waters late Thursday.
Precipitation will mainly be rain with this warm core system with
a mix of rain and snow along the boundary as it becomes diffuse
along the eastern waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It is clear that the Bering ridge,responsible for separating the
two domains into separate weather scenarios, is breaking down.
This will usher in a period of rapidly progressive systems at
least through the middle of next week.

There remains good model agreement Thu night through Fri as the
mainland AK ridge begins to retreat and the Bering front
dissipates over southwest AK and the Akpen. A weak low will also
remain over the extreme northern Gulf. By Fri night the latter low
dissipates, and a succession of lows and waves make their way
across the North Pacific to the Aleutians. This is where the
models have difficulty resolving and moving the lows. Some models
have a series of lows moving east while others consolidate the
features into one large central Aleutian low.

The forecast through Fri night utilized the Nam, but then the
ensemble approach of WPC was used to describe the next low as it
moves, from near Attu on Fri to the central Aleutians on Sat, and
then to the central Gulf on Mon. This low leaves the area on Tue,
while the next low leaves Kamchatka on Mon, reaches the central
Bering Tue, and then continues to the Gulf.

As the lows move east they will spread some rain and snow showers
across the Aleutians and southwest AK. Scattered rain and snow
showers are also expected mainly along the north Gulf coast
through Sat. There should be a break in precipitation beginning Sat
night until it returns with the second low early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 178 411. Gales 130 131 132 175 176 177 185 352 412
413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS