Small Craft Advisory 896, NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK51 PAFC 161257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170145-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THU EVENING. A 1017 MB LOW
DEVELOPS 120 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING THU MORNING MOVES 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES 60 NM SOUTH OF
SEWARD AT 1012 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-170145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170145-
PORT VALDEZ-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170145-
VALDEZ ARM-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-170145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170145-
CHINIAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170145-
MARMOT BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large vertically stacked low is now centered in the
Southcentral Gulf. The occluded front and band of strong north to
northwesterly winds has also shifted to the east to run from
Bristol Bay across the eastern Alaska Peninsula. Gusty outflow
winds continue to blow strongly through gaps and passes in the
Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Range. Although the overall pressure
gradient is slowly relaxing, cold air pushing in over Southwest
Alaska and Bristol Bay behind the front is reinforcing and
prolonging the outflow winds.

The most recent trough to rotate across the Kenai Peninsula and
Southcentral is currently pushing west across Cook Inlet and into
the Alaska/Aleutian Range. The north to south running front across
Southwest Alaska tracks slowly east as a cold upper level trough
behind it moves onshore. A frontal system stretching from the
North Pacific, across the central Aleutians and into the western
Bering will continue to weaken as it is sheared apart by the
associated vertically stacked parent low in the Bering tracking
north and the rapidly deepening low along 45N tracking east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are for the most part in good agreement through midweek.
Some differences do start creeping in Wednesday and Wednesday
night regarding the strength of the offshore flow that develops
and an inverted leeside trough that forms along the northern Gulf
Coast in the in response to strong cross barrier flow.
Additionally, the track and strength of an upper level low
tracking south out of interior Alaska Wednesday night and
Thursday could have some significant impacts on the forecast for
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions are expected to remain VFR with mid to high
level clouds continuing to move through the area. Northerly flow
increases tonight through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Radar imagery this morning continues to show the line of showers
pushing westward away from the Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile,
numerous showers associated with the Gulf low are brushing along
the north Gulf Coast. As this low continues to push to the
southeast, showers will continue to diminish across Southcentral
into Wednesday. The exception to this will be an upper level
trough that will move quickly from the west to east, and bring
widespread clouds and support a few showers along the mountains
Wednesday. Ahead of this trough, widespread cold air advection is
expected to occur, and support gusty gap winds across the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges today. As a result, temperatures are expected
to cool over the next few days across Southcentral. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Light snow will slowly diminish along the western slopes of the
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges as high pressure moves over the region
today. Very dry air just above the surface will move inland and
help to trap any low-level moisture near the surface. This may
result in widespread fog formation this afternoon and evening
along and west of the Kuskokwim Mountains, especially from Bethel
east to near Aniak, that could persist well into Wednesday.

A weather system will move north across the Bering toward the
Bering Strait and is likely to graze the northern Kuskokwim Delta
coast with snow warming to rain tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong northwesterly winds will slowly taper off out of the
Alaska Peninsula through today and tonight. The Bering low
weakens as it moves north Tuesday night and is followed by a
stronger storm force system on Wednesday. The front associated
with this system will be quite powerful and near its maximum
intensity as it reaches the Western Aleutians Wednesday. Winds
will be very strong just above the surface, but these winds are
not expected to mix down to the surface. Thus, no High Wind
Watches are anticipated at this time. The front will begin to
rapidly weaken as it impinges on the downstream ridge over SW
Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation will be rain
as a warmer subtropical air mass feeds in from the North Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday but by Friday
serious discrepancies become quite apparent. High pressure will
have built across much of mainland Alaska by Thursday with normal
to below normal temperatures returning to much of the state. This
high pressure will begin to displace eastward Thursday night as a
gale to possibly storm force front pushes further eastward across
the Bering Sea than expected yesterday. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall out and dissipate just off the west coast of
Alaska which will help to increase snow chances across Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, high pressure will then stall over
Southcentral Alaska as the front in the Bering Falls apart which
will keep the region on the dry and cold side. A tap of dry and
cold arctic air will continue filtering south through the extended
portion and with this dry air combined with subsidence from the
upper level ridge, any chances of snow in the next seven to ten
days looks negligible.

The Bering Sea will see all of the fun in the extended period as a
low just off the coast of Kamchatka on Thursday will drive a
powerful gale to storm force front across much of the Bering Sea.
Decent rainfall is expected along the frontal boundary as a tap of
warmer air and moisture from the North Pacific develops. This
front will fall apart Friday east of the Pribilof Islands but yet
another low pressure/front will move into the Bering Sea Friday
night/Saturday morning. Models are in terrible agreement with low
centers at times over 500 miles apart from time to time and model
run to model run so it's very difficult to give a good estimate to
where the low will move. However, based on the upper level
pattern, there is a very high likelihood this low develops but it
will be a few more days until we know where it will move.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...STORM...177 178 GALE...130 131 132 138 155 160 175.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC