Small Craft Advisory 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

661 
FZAK51 PAFC 191147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200045-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 170 NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING ALONG A WEATHER FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 50 NM WEST OF CHINIAK AT 988 MB
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-200045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200045-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT.  SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200045-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200045-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200045-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

202 
FZAK51 PAFC 192352
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201230-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATE THU NIGHT. A 988 MB LOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-201230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201230-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201230-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 35 KT
BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201230-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201230-
MARMOT BAY-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough is over much of the Bering and mainland AK
this morning with an embedded cut-off low over sw AK and Kodiak
Island. Some upper ridging is poking across the extreme northern
Bering into NW AK. At the surface a broad area of low pressure
covers virtually the entire forecast area with a center well south
of Kodiak Island. Gusty north winds are affecting the eastern half
of the Bering and Aleutians along with some rain and snow shower
activity. Rain and snow showers are also affecting Kodiak Island
and the north Gulf coast. As the low consolidated to the south
last night, the gradient responsible for gusty winds out of the
Matanuska Valley has relaxed and the winds have diminished.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The forecast problem remains the trajectory of the low south of
Kodiak. Models are coming into increasing agreement that this low
will trace a full 360 degree circle centered south of the AK pen
before returning briefly to the north Pacific by late Wed night.
As it moves through the northern half if its circle this afternoon
and night, it will tighten the pressure gradient across the AK pen
and through Shelikof Strait, which should then relax Wed night. In
the meantime a triple point low will develop in the central Gulf
tonight and pinwheel around the northern Gulf with tightening
gradients and increasing moisture near the coast.

In the west a Kamchatka low and associated front will affect the
western Aleutians beginning later tonight. The forecast for both
domains uses a blended solution including the GFS and NAM.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...N winds will increase again after 17z today as the down
inlet pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching front
over the gulf. This will bring gusts as high as 20 kt by this
afternoon before beginning to diminish in the evening as the
gradient slowly weakens. Ceilings will also lower to around 5000
ft this afternoon, however downsloping from the Chugach should
keep any layers below that to a SCT layer. Afterwards, VFR
conditions with diminishing N winds should then be expected late
this evening- Wednesday morning.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The mainland will lie on the periphery of a couple fronts and low
pressure systems over the next two days bringing several rounds of
rain and snow to mostly coastal locations. Early this morning, a
weak frontal boundary aloft will push inland from the coast
bringing the possibility of flurries or sprinkles to the Cook
Inlet region, with slightly heavier showers along the north gulf
coast. A stronger front and surface low pressure is currently
developing south of Kodiak Island, where rain will spread north
and westward from Kodiak City through Kachemak Bay and the west
side of Cook Inlet. The eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula will
see a continuation of rain and snow showers, especially inland.

A secondary front move northward late tonight, and will develop a
compact but strong surface low pressure from east to west across
the gulf. Gale force winds will surround the low, however they
will quickly weaken Wednesday afternoon as the system fills and
moves southward. The front will then swing inland as it falls
apart bringing another chance for rain/snow along the north gulf
coast.

Otherwise, winds should be on a general downtrend with mostly
cloudy conditions in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool, dry north to northeasterly flow will continue across
southwest Alaska through Tuesday afternoon, as an upper level
trough over mainland Alaska rotates across southwest Alaska and
Bristol Bay to become centered over the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island this evening. The upper level low will remain in
that general location through Tuesday morning and then drop south
as a surface low rotates north into the Gulf just south of Kodiak
Island then swings west towards the Alaska Peninsula. A low
approaching Kodiak island Tuesday night will bring in some
slightly warmer temperatures and precipitation along the eastern
parts of the Bristol Bay zone. However, there remains some
uncertainty between the models regarding the strength and track of
this system through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low south of the central Aleutians will continue east
tonight before tracking into the southwest Gulf by Tuesday. Upper
level ridging will build into the western and central Bering
behind this low continuing northerly flow over the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula through midweek. The next surface low and
associated front will reach the western Aleutians Tuesday night
and track into the central Aleutians/Bering by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There are several features moving through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday that look to have an impact for the southern
mainland and Aleutians. The first is a low south of the Gulf that
is bringing easterly winds to the Gulf and rain to the north Gulf
coast. In the coastal ranges it will be cold enough for snow. That
low will then track off to the east.

The second feature is a shortwave tracking southeast across the
southern Bering that looks to bring rain to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians Thursday before moving out into the North
Pacific. The third features is a trough that is digging down
across the state that will make it over Southcentral Alaska
Friday. It will bring another push of cold air, but it looks too
dry to bring much, if any, snow.

Moving towards the weekend, the models fall apart. The main thing
they agree on is that a fairly deep low will move into the western
Bering Sunday. However, there is low confidence for this timeframe
with how much the models are struggling. Ensembles were preferred
over the deterministic solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
              165 172.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK