Small Craft Advisory 819, NWS Anchorage, AK

248 
FZAK51 PAFC 182351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 130 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHIGNIK TUE NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
ON WED. A 988 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO
AROUND 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED AFTERNOON AT 985
MB...THEN WEAKEN NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND
50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough is over much of the Bering and mainland AK
this morning with an embedded cut-off low over sw AK and Kodiak
Island. Some upper ridging is poking across the extreme northern
Bering into NW AK. At the surface a broad area of low pressure
covers virtually the entire forecast area with a center well south
of Kodiak Island. Gusty north winds are affecting the eastern half
of the Bering and Aleutians along with some rain and snow shower
activity. Rain and snow showers are also affecting Kodiak Island
and the north Gulf coast. As the low consolidated to the south
last night, the gradient responsible for gusty winds out of the
Matanuska Valley has relaxed and the winds have diminished.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The forecast problem remains the trajectory of the low south of
Kodiak. Models are coming into increasing agreement that this low
will trace a full 360 degree circle centered south of the AK pen
before returning briefly to the north Pacific by late Wed night.
As it moves through the northern half if its circle this afternoon
and night, it will tighten the pressure gradient across the AK pen
and through Shelikof Strait, which should then relax Wed night. In
the meantime a triple point low will develop in the central Gulf
tonight and pinwheel around the northern Gulf with tightening
gradients and increasing moisture near the coast.

In the west a Kamchatka low and associated front will affect the
western Aleutians beginning later tonight. The forecast for both
domains uses a blended solution including the GFS and NAM.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...N winds will increase again after 17z today as the down
inlet pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching front
over the gulf. This will bring gusts as high as 20 kt by this
afternoon before beginning to diminish in the evening as the
gradient slowly weakens. Ceilings will also lower to around 5000
ft this afternoon, however downsloping from the Chugach should
keep any layers below that to a SCT layer. Afterwards, VFR
conditions with diminishing N winds should then be expected late
this evening- Wednesday morning.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The mainland will lie on the periphery of a couple fronts and low
pressure systems over the next two days bringing several rounds of
rain and snow to mostly coastal locations. Early this morning, a
weak frontal boundary aloft will push inland from the coast
bringing the possibility of flurries or sprinkles to the Cook
Inlet region, with slightly heavier showers along the north gulf
coast. A stronger front and surface low pressure is currently
developing south of Kodiak Island, where rain will spread north
and westward from Kodiak City through Kachemak Bay and the west
side of Cook Inlet. The eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula will
see a continuation of rain and snow showers, especially inland.

A secondary front move northward late tonight, and will develop a
compact but strong surface low pressure from east to west across
the gulf. Gale force winds will surround the low, however they
will quickly weaken Wednesday afternoon as the system fills and
moves southward. The front will then swing inland as it falls
apart bringing another chance for rain/snow along the north gulf
coast.

Otherwise, winds should be on a general downtrend with mostly
cloudy conditions in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool, dry north to northeasterly flow will continue across
southwest Alaska through Tuesday afternoon, as an upper level
trough over mainland Alaska rotates across southwest Alaska and
Bristol Bay to become centered over the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island this evening. The upper level low will remain in
that general location through Tuesday morning and then drop south
as a surface low rotates north into the Gulf just south of Kodiak
Island then swings west towards the Alaska Peninsula. A low
approaching Kodiak island Tuesday night will bring in some
slightly warmer temperatures and precipitation along the eastern
parts of the Bristol Bay zone. However, there remains some
uncertainty between the models regarding the strength and track of
this system through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low south of the central Aleutians will continue east
tonight before tracking into the southwest Gulf by Tuesday. Upper
level ridging will build into the western and central Bering
behind this low continuing northerly flow over the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula through midweek. The next surface low and
associated front will reach the western Aleutians Tuesday night
and track into the central Aleutians/Bering by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There are several features moving through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday that look to have an impact for the southern
mainland and Aleutians. The first is a low south of the Gulf that
is bringing easterly winds to the Gulf and rain to the north Gulf
coast. In the coastal ranges it will be cold enough for snow. That
low will then track off to the east.

The second feature is a shortwave tracking southeast across the
southern Bering that looks to bring rain to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians Thursday before moving out into the North
Pacific. The third features is a trough that is digging down
across the state that will make it over Southcentral Alaska
Friday. It will bring another push of cold air, but it looks too
dry to bring much, if any, snow.

Moving towards the weekend, the models fall apart. The main thing
they agree on is that a fairly deep low will move into the western
Bering Sunday. However, there is low confidence for this timeframe
with how much the models are struggling. Ensembles were preferred
over the deterministic solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
              165 172.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK