Gale Warning 564, NWS Anchorage, AK

741 
FZAK61 PAFC 181323 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

UPDATED 352

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190315-
523 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW AT 52N 154W MOVES TO 54N 151W AT 975 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW SLIDES TO 54N 158W AT 971 MB WED MORNING AND
THEN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THU MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES TO THE GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. A 986 MB LOW FORMS NEAR
56N 145W WED MORNING AND MOVES TO 58N 149W AT 990 MB THU MORNING.


$$

PKZ351-190315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
523 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
523 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

599 
FZAK61 PAFC 181457
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
657 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190015-
657 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW AT 52N 154W MOVES TO 54N 151W AT 975 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW SLIDES TO 54N 158W AT 971 MB WED MORNING AND
THEN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THU MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES TO THE GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. A 986 MB LOW FORMS NEAR
56N 145W WED MORNING AND MOVES TO 58N 149W AT 990 MB THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-190015-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
657 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190015-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
657 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

707 
FZAK61 PAFC 182343
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191330-
343 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 55N 155W WILL MOVE TO 54N 159W TUE NIGHT...THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ON WED. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 52N 141W
WILL MOVE TO AROUND 58N 147W WED AFTERNOON AT 985 MB...THEN WEAKEN
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-191330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. E OF 147W...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT
BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 150W...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. W OF 150W...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT
BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

653 
FZAK61 PAFC 191139
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200130-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 156W THIS MORNING ALONG A
WEATHER FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO 57N 150W AT 988 MB LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
THU MORNING.


$$

PKZ351-200130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

263 
FZAK61 PAFC 192344
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201330-
344 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 58N 147W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
AND DISSIPATE LATE THU NIGHT. A 988 MB LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-201330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT MON OCT 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An elongated upper level low centered near Shelikof Strait is
moving southwestward as a short-wave digs southward across the
eastern Bering Sea. Arctic air behind this short-wave is
advecting across Southwest Alaska and over the warm waters of the
Eastern Bering Sea. This is leading to bands of showers and gusty
northerly winds. Precip-type is mostly rain, though expect a
transition toward snow as progressively colder air continues to
advect southward.

On the east side of the upper low center a short-wave trough is
rotating northwestward toward Southcentral, with precip spreading
onshore across Prince William Sound. A surface low is tracking
westward across the southern Kenai Peninsula helping to produce
periods of snow over the southwest Kenai Peninsula, including the
Homer area. Warm air advection behind the surface low and with
the upper trough is leading to a changeover from snow to rain
across the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to struggle with track of deepening surface low
south of Kodiak Island on Tuesday, though solutions are getting
closer each model cycle. Will trend heavily toward the ECMWF
solution, which has support from Canadian as well as the 18Z NAM.
Even though forecast confidence near the low center is low,
confidence is much higher north of the low center with good
agreement on frontal position and strength. Models all then
develop one or more triple point lows over the Gulf Tuesday Night,
with a very large spread in positions. Thus, forecast confidence
is very low, especially over the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. There
will likely be a couple short periods of sub-6000 ft ceilings late
this afternoon and evening as bands of showers transit the area,
though it is difficult to nail down the exact timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain, snow and gusty winds are the challenges into mid week. The
general trend will be diminishing winds tonight across the
Matanuska Valley with a strong short wave bringing increased
precipitation chances across Southcentral, western Gulf and Cook
Inlet. The next front will bring rain and gusty winds along the
Gulf and surrounding coast Tuesday into Wednesday with drier
conditions inland as the associated low tracks south of the coast.

A re-enforcing low in the northern Gulf will initiate rain and
snow showers along the coast this evening with scattered snow activity
moving inland overnight. The Kenai will see a mix of rain and
snow as low pressure moves across the peninsula toward the
Aleutian Range overnight. Temperatures along the Kenai coast are
expected to warm above freezing Tuesday afternoon as a warm surge
moves into the Gulf. This front moves into the southern Gulf
early Tuesday bringing widespread gusty gale winds and rain. Winds
were adjusted across the gulf to bring the boundary across faster
than the previously forecasted. There is still some uncertainty on
the the strength and placement of the low center Tuesday evening
into Wednesday. Winds are the primary challenge during this
timeframe and should be monitored as they may need to be increased
across the Gulf and along the Kenai in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool, dry north to northeasterly flow will continue across
southwest Alaska through Tuesday afternoon, as an upper level
trough over mainland Alaska rotates across southwest Alaska and
Bristol Bay to become centered over the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island this evening. The upper level low will remain in
that general location through Tuesday morning and then drop south
as a surface low rotates north into the Gulf just south of Kodiak
Island then swings west towards the Alaska Peninsula. A low
approaching Kodiak island Tuesday night will bring in some
slightly warmer temperatures and precipitation along the eastern
parts of the Bristol Bay zone. However, there remains some
uncertainty between the models regarding the strength and track of
this system through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low south of the central Aleutians will continue east
tonight before tracking into the southwest Gulf by Tuesday. Upper
level ridging will build into the western and central Bering
behind this low continuing northerly flow over the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula through midweek. The next surface low and
associated front will reach the western Aleutians Tuesday night
and track into the central Aleutians/Bering by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There are several features moving through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday that look to have an impact for the southern
mainland and Aleutians. The first is a low south of the Gulf that
is bringing easterly winds to the Gulf and rain to the north Gulf
coast. In the coastal ranges it will be cold enough for snow. That
low will then track off to the east.

The second feature is a shortwave tracking southeast across the
southern Bering that looks to bring rain to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians Thursday before moving out into the North
Pacific. The third features is a trough that is digging down
across the state that will make it over Southcentral Alaska
Friday. It will bring another push of cold air, but it looks too
dry to bring much, if any, snow.

Moving towards the weekend, the models fall apart. The main thing
they agree on is that a fairly deep low will move into the western
Bering Sunday. However, there is low confidence for this timeframe
with how much the models are struggling. Ensembles were preferred
over the deterministic solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130-138 150-165 172 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK