Gale Warning 614, NWS Anchorage, AK

262 
FZAK52 PAFC 190613 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191915-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW 130 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHIGNIK TUE NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
ON WED. A 999 MB LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO
145 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND
130 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THU.

$$

PKZ150-191915-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THEN DIMINISHED TO E 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 18 FT
NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191915-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DURING THE MORNING. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191915-
BRISTOL BAY-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191915-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191915-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191915-
UNALASKA BAY-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191915-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191915-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191915-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191915-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191915-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191915-
ADAK TO KISKA-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191915-
KISKA TO ATTU-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191915-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191915-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191915-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191915-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
1013 PM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 191139
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200030-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 470 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WHILE WEAKENING TO 981 MB LATE TONIGHT. A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 250 NM WEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 80 NM
NORTH OF ATTU THIS AFTERNOON AT 999 MB AND WILL WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
THU MORNING 100 NM NORTH OF ADAK BEFORE DISSIPATING THU AFTERNOON.
A POTENT WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-200030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200030-
BRISTOL BAY-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200030-
UNALASKA BAY-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS UP TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
339 AM AKDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough is over much of the Bering and mainland AK
this morning with an embedded cut-off low over sw AK and Kodiak
Island. Some upper ridging is poking across the extreme northern
Bering into NW AK. At the surface a broad area of low pressure
covers virtually the entire forecast area with a center well south
of Kodiak Island. Gusty north winds are affecting the eastern half
of the Bering and Aleutians along with some rain and snow shower
activity. Rain and snow showers are also affecting Kodiak Island
and the north Gulf coast. As the low consolidated to the south
last night, the gradient responsible for gusty winds out of the
Matanuska Valley has relaxed and the winds have diminished.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The forecast problem remains the trajectory of the low south of
Kodiak. Models are coming into increasing agreement that this low
will trace a full 360 degree circle centered south of the AK pen
before returning briefly to the north Pacific by late Wed night.
As it moves through the northern half if its circle this afternoon
and night, it will tighten the pressure gradient across the AK pen
and through Shelikof Strait, which should then relax Wed night. In
the meantime a triple point low will develop in the central Gulf
tonight and pinwheel around the northern Gulf with tightening
gradients and increasing moisture near the coast.

In the west a Kamchatka low and associated front will affect the
western Aleutians beginning later tonight. The forecast for both
domains uses a blended solution including the GFS and NAM.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...N winds will increase again after 17z today as the down
inlet pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching front
over the gulf. This will bring gusts as high as 20 kt by this
afternoon before beginning to diminish in the evening as the
gradient slowly weakens. Ceilings will also lower to around 5000
ft this afternoon, however downsloping from the Chugach should
keep any layers below that to a SCT layer. Afterwards, VFR
conditions with diminishing N winds should then be expected late
this evening- Wednesday morning.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The mainland will lie on the periphery of a couple fronts and low
pressure systems over the next two days bringing several rounds of
rain and snow to mostly coastal locations. Early this morning, a
weak frontal boundary aloft will push inland from the coast
bringing the possibility of flurries or sprinkles to the Cook
Inlet region, with slightly heavier showers along the north gulf
coast. A stronger front and surface low pressure is currently
developing south of Kodiak Island, where rain will spread north
and westward from Kodiak City through Kachemak Bay and the west
side of Cook Inlet. The eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula will
see a continuation of rain and snow showers, especially inland.

A secondary front move northward late tonight, and will develop a
compact but strong surface low pressure from east to west across
the gulf. Gale force winds will surround the low, however they
will quickly weaken Wednesday afternoon as the system fills and
moves southward. The front will then swing inland as it falls
apart bringing another chance for rain/snow along the north gulf
coast.

Otherwise, winds should be on a general downtrend with mostly
cloudy conditions in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool, dry north to northeasterly flow will continue across
southwest Alaska through Tuesday afternoon, as an upper level
trough over mainland Alaska rotates across southwest Alaska and
Bristol Bay to become centered over the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island this evening. The upper level low will remain in
that general location through Tuesday morning and then drop south
as a surface low rotates north into the Gulf just south of Kodiak
Island then swings west towards the Alaska Peninsula. A low
approaching Kodiak island Tuesday night will bring in some
slightly warmer temperatures and precipitation along the eastern
parts of the Bristol Bay zone. However, there remains some
uncertainty between the models regarding the strength and track of
this system through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low south of the central Aleutians will continue east
tonight before tracking into the southwest Gulf by Tuesday. Upper
level ridging will build into the western and central Bering
behind this low continuing northerly flow over the eastern Bering
and Alaska Peninsula through midweek. The next surface low and
associated front will reach the western Aleutians Tuesday night
and track into the central Aleutians/Bering by Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There are several features moving through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday that look to have an impact for the southern
mainland and Aleutians. The first is a low south of the Gulf that
is bringing easterly winds to the Gulf and rain to the north Gulf
coast. In the coastal ranges it will be cold enough for snow. That
low will then track off to the east.

The second feature is a shortwave tracking southeast across the
southern Bering that looks to bring rain to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians Thursday before moving out into the North
Pacific. The third features is a trough that is digging down
across the state that will make it over Southcentral Alaska
Friday. It will bring another push of cold air, but it looks too
dry to bring much, if any, snow.

Moving towards the weekend, the models fall apart. The main thing
they agree on is that a fairly deep low will move into the western
Bering Sunday. However, there is low confidence for this timeframe
with how much the models are struggling. Ensembles were preferred
over the deterministic solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
              165 172.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK