Small Craft Advisory 742, NWS Anchorage, AK

228 
FZAK52 PAFC 182357
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191315-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES 225 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 979 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-191315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. E OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY EARLY EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191315-
BRISTOL BAY-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING
TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191315-
UNALASKA BAY-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
CAPE NEWENHAM N....S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
357 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper low continues to shift southeast over the southwestern
Mainland in response to a building longwave ridge over the Bering
Sea. Weak shortwave ridging is building downstream of the low over
Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, an occluded front associated
with a Kamchatka low extends from the northwest Bering Sea through
the eastern Aleutians, resulting in rain, fog, and gusty
southwesterly winds over the southwest Bering and Aleutians. Gusty
northwesterly outflow winds continue over the Alaska Peninsula and
surrounding waters in response to cold air advection around the
main low and a tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging
builds in the Bering. Showery conditions continue over the
southwestern and southcentral Mainland forced by the upper low
over the Southwest and weak waves rotating around the low into
Southcentral.

&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term. The NAM was used
in the east for its higher resolution for winds and showers, while
a blend was used in the west. Confidence is high in the short term
with temporary short-term ridging building in through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus for showers tonight will be along a shortwave
currently moving north over the Kenai. The northern Kenai to the
Matanuska Valley will see the best chances for rain from this wave
with generally light accumulations up to a quarter of an inch. A
drier pattern is setting up for Sunday and Monday as a ridge
amplifies across the southwest and shifts east. Offshore flow
increases Sunday afternoon with gusts developing through channeled
terrain in favored locations. Look for cooler temperatures Sunday
night as a cool and dry air mass settles in from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper level closed low remains over the Bristol Bay coastline
with an associated trough extending northward along the Kuskokwim
Mountains. This is producing a showery regime through Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta this evening before gradually
tapering off as this synoptic feature exits into the Gulf by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge builds into the
region during the overnight hours as we head into Sunday. Look for
the development of dense fog in the Kuskokwim Delta after Midnight
tonight with possible lowering of visibilities by early Sunday
morning time-frame, and then dissipating by late Sunday morning.
The surface flow will shift to southwesterly with warm air
advection streaming into the AOR by Sunday.

By Monday a strong frontal boundary tracks into the eastern
Bering setting up for gusty southerly gale force winds approaching
the Southwest Alaska coastlines. The possibility of coastal
flooding along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline is being watched as
strong southerly winds develop by Monday afternoon. Based on
latest guidance, this will coincide with the high tide which has
potential to cause some minor coastal flooding. Will wait for the
next model run to get a better handle on the exact timing of these
winds since the alignment with high tide will be the key factor
for flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A shortwave tracking through the Eastern Aleutians this evening
combined with a building upstream ridge will result in gusty
northwesterly gap winds along the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula tonight before diminishing by early Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a storm force North Pacific low is tracking just west
of the Aleutian chain this evening which will result in the
development of strong southwesterly to southerly flow across the
Western Aleutians. This system tracks into the western Bering by
Monday with the associated weather front positioned over Unalaska
northward into the northern Bering. This feature will bring a
large swath of abundant moisture/stratus with gale force southerly
winds as it moves across the Bering/Aleutians as we head into
Monday. As the cooler air wraps around the low pressure system,
look for gale force westerly winds to develop in the western
Bering resulting in a showery weather regime by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast confidence is improving on the timing and intensity of
a strong front moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf for
the middle of next week. This will bring gusty winds and heavy
rain to Kodiak Island starting Tuesday evening, before spreading
into the Gulf Coast where it will bring widespread gale force
winds and heavy rain to much of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
For interior Southcentral, downsloping will prevent the heaviest
rain from falling over the population centers, however a significant
amount of available moisture from this system will likely keep
light rain over the area for the middle of next week. There is
also decent agreement that a triple point low developing over the
western Gulf on Wednesday will bring gusty northerly winds from
Cook Inlet into the Matanuska Valley. However, there isn't enough
confidence at this point to determine how strong these might be.
As a result, winds were conservatively increased throughout the
Cook Inlet region today, but these may need to be increased
further if confidence in this solution increases. The other
concern from this system rests with how much rain may fall along
the Gulf Coast. The good news is that there is good confidence
that ridging over the panhandle will be much weaker than expected
a few days ago, and as a result the chances of a prolonged period
of heavy rain during the middle of next week is lower than it was
a few days ago.

By late next week the models really begin to struggle as another
much deeper system quickly develops in the North Pacific and
moves into the Gulf. The exact impacts from this system is tough
to tell with large model spread, however is very likely that
active weather will continue throughout the Gulf and south
Mainland through the work week. This could include a potential
for continued heavy rain and significant winds throughout the
Gulf, as well as the chance of a significant wind storm into
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177
178 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK