High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

395 
WHAK42 PAFC 182359
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...MAJOR STORM TO BRING HIGH SURF MONDAY...

AKZ155-200000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.SU.Y.0001.160919T2100Z-160920T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
359 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM AKDT
MONDAY...

* LOCATION...THE COASTLINE FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY THROUGH HOOPER BAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...SOUTHERLY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL USHER IN 
  WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE ON SOUTH-FACING 
  SHORES BETWEEN QUINHAGAK AND KIPNUK. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
  PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD SHARPLY IN RESPONSE TO 
  THE WINDS AND PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL 
  BE DURING HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 
  WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE MONDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...THE HIGHEST SURF AND BEST CHANCE FOR EROSION WILL BE 
  ON SOUTH-FACING SHORES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO BRING PROPERTY FURTHER
INLAND TO AVOID DAMAGE.

&&

$$

230 
WHAK42 PAFC 191214
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...MAJOR STORM TO BRING HIGH SURF TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY...

AKZ155-200600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.SU.Y.0001.160919T2100Z-160920T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
414 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM QUINHAGAK TO HOOPER BAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...SOUTHERLY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
  WAVES BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ON SOUTH-
  FACING SHORES BETWEEN QUINHAGAK AND KIPNUK.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
  PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING DURING
  THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. THE WORST CONDITIONS
  WILL OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
  EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGHEST SURF AND BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL EROSION
  WILL BE ON SOUTH-FACING SHORES BETWEEN QUINHAGAK AND KIPNUK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO BRING PROPERTY FURTHER
INLAND TO AVOID DAMAGE.

&&

$$

038 
WHAK42 PAFC 192354
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016


AKZ155-200600-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160920T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
354 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM QUINHAGAK TO HOOPER BAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...SOUTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
  MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WAVES BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. THE HIGHEST
  SURF WILL BE ON SOUTH-FACING SHORES BETWEEN QUINHAGAK AND
  KIPNUK.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY
  DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
  DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING WINDS.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGHEST SURF AND BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL EROSION 
  WILL BE ON SOUTH-FACING SHORES BETWEEN QUINHAGAK AND KIPNUK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO BRING PROPERTY FURTHER
INLAND TO AVOID DAMAGE.

&&

$$

483 
WHAK42 PAFC 200612
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

AKZ155-200715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160920T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
1012 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION AND FORECASTS.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper low continues to shift southeast over the southwestern
Mainland in response to a building longwave ridge over the Bering
Sea. Weak shortwave ridging is building downstream of the low over
Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, an occluded front associated
with a Kamchatka low extends from the northwest Bering Sea through
the eastern Aleutians, resulting in rain, fog, and gusty
southwesterly winds over the southwest Bering and Aleutians. Gusty
northwesterly outflow winds continue over the Alaska Peninsula and
surrounding waters in response to cold air advection around the
main low and a tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging
builds in the Bering. Showery conditions continue over the
southwestern and southcentral Mainland forced by the upper low
over the Southwest and weak waves rotating around the low into
Southcentral.

&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term. The NAM was used
in the east for its higher resolution for winds and showers, while
a blend was used in the west. Confidence is high in the short term
with temporary short-term ridging building in through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus for showers tonight will be along a shortwave
currently moving north over the Kenai. The northern Kenai to the
Matanuska Valley will see the best chances for rain from this wave
with generally light accumulations up to a quarter of an inch. A
drier pattern is setting up for Sunday and Monday as a ridge
amplifies across the southwest and shifts east. Offshore flow
increases Sunday afternoon with gusts developing through channeled
terrain in favored locations. Look for cooler temperatures Sunday
night as a cool and dry air mass settles in from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper level closed low remains over the Bristol Bay coastline
with an associated trough extending northward along the Kuskokwim
Mountains. This is producing a showery regime through Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta this evening before gradually
tapering off as this synoptic feature exits into the Gulf by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge builds into the
region during the overnight hours as we head into Sunday. Look for
the development of dense fog in the Kuskokwim Delta after Midnight
tonight with possible lowering of visibilities by early Sunday
morning time-frame, and then dissipating by late Sunday morning.
The surface flow will shift to southwesterly with warm air
advection streaming into the AOR by Sunday.

By Monday a strong frontal boundary tracks into the eastern
Bering setting up for gusty southerly gale force winds approaching
the Southwest Alaska coastlines. The possibility of coastal
flooding along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline is being watched as
strong southerly winds develop by Monday afternoon. Based on
latest guidance, this will coincide with the high tide which has
potential to cause some minor coastal flooding. Will wait for the
next model run to get a better handle on the exact timing of these
winds since the alignment with high tide will be the key factor
for flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A shortwave tracking through the Eastern Aleutians this evening
combined with a building upstream ridge will result in gusty
northwesterly gap winds along the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula tonight before diminishing by early Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a storm force North Pacific low is tracking just west
of the Aleutian chain this evening which will result in the
development of strong southwesterly to southerly flow across the
Western Aleutians. This system tracks into the western Bering by
Monday with the associated weather front positioned over Unalaska
northward into the northern Bering. This feature will bring a
large swath of abundant moisture/stratus with gale force southerly
winds as it moves across the Bering/Aleutians as we head into
Monday. As the cooler air wraps around the low pressure system,
look for gale force westerly winds to develop in the western
Bering resulting in a showery weather regime by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast confidence is improving on the timing and intensity of
a strong front moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf for
the middle of next week. This will bring gusty winds and heavy
rain to Kodiak Island starting Tuesday evening, before spreading
into the Gulf Coast where it will bring widespread gale force
winds and heavy rain to much of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
For interior Southcentral, downsloping will prevent the heaviest
rain from falling over the population centers, however a significant
amount of available moisture from this system will likely keep
light rain over the area for the middle of next week. There is
also decent agreement that a triple point low developing over the
western Gulf on Wednesday will bring gusty northerly winds from
Cook Inlet into the Matanuska Valley. However, there isn't enough
confidence at this point to determine how strong these might be.
As a result, winds were conservatively increased throughout the
Cook Inlet region today, but these may need to be increased
further if confidence in this solution increases. The other
concern from this system rests with how much rain may fall along
the Gulf Coast. The good news is that there is good confidence
that ridging over the panhandle will be much weaker than expected
a few days ago, and as a result the chances of a prolonged period
of heavy rain during the middle of next week is lower than it was
a few days ago.

By late next week the models really begin to struggle as another
much deeper system quickly develops in the North Pacific and
moves into the Gulf. The exact impacts from this system is tough
to tell with large model spread, however is very likely that
active weather will continue throughout the Gulf and south
Mainland through the work week. This could include a potential
for continued heavy rain and significant winds throughout the
Gulf, as well as the chance of a significant wind storm into
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177
178 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK