Small Craft Advisory 741, NWS Anchorage, AK

931 
FZAK51 PAFC 182346
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191245-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MON EVENING AND TRACK TO THE
CENTRAL GULF ON TUE.

$$

PKZ119-191245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING 
E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191245-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT EARLY THEN BECOMING N AND INCREASING 
TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191245-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT 
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191245-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191245-
MARMOT BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

576 
FZAK51 PAFC 191136
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200115-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A
1001 MB LOW FORMS 155 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUE MORNING AND MOVES
ONSHORE 90 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 987 MB TUE EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED
MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-200115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200115-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200115-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200115-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200115-
MARMOT BAY-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper low continues to shift southeast over the southwestern
Mainland in response to a building longwave ridge over the Bering
Sea. Weak shortwave ridging is building downstream of the low over
Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, an occluded front associated
with a Kamchatka low extends from the northwest Bering Sea through
the eastern Aleutians, resulting in rain, fog, and gusty
southwesterly winds over the southwest Bering and Aleutians. Gusty
northwesterly outflow winds continue over the Alaska Peninsula and
surrounding waters in response to cold air advection around the
main low and a tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging
builds in the Bering. Showery conditions continue over the
southwestern and southcentral Mainland forced by the upper low
over the Southwest and weak waves rotating around the low into
Southcentral.

&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term. The NAM was used
in the east for its higher resolution for winds and showers, while
a blend was used in the west. Confidence is high in the short term
with temporary short-term ridging building in through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus for showers tonight will be along a shortwave
currently moving north over the Kenai. The northern Kenai to the
Matanuska Valley will see the best chances for rain from this wave
with generally light accumulations up to a quarter of an inch. A
drier pattern is setting up for Sunday and Monday as a ridge
amplifies across the southwest and shifts east. Offshore flow
increases Sunday afternoon with gusts developing through channeled
terrain in favored locations. Look for cooler temperatures Sunday
night as a cool and dry air mass settles in from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper level closed low remains over the Bristol Bay coastline
with an associated trough extending northward along the Kuskokwim
Mountains. This is producing a showery regime through Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta this evening before gradually
tapering off as this synoptic feature exits into the Gulf by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge builds into the
region during the overnight hours as we head into Sunday. Look for
the development of dense fog in the Kuskokwim Delta after Midnight
tonight with possible lowering of visibilities by early Sunday
morning time-frame, and then dissipating by late Sunday morning.
The surface flow will shift to southwesterly with warm air
advection streaming into the AOR by Sunday.

By Monday a strong frontal boundary tracks into the eastern
Bering setting up for gusty southerly gale force winds approaching
the Southwest Alaska coastlines. The possibility of coastal
flooding along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline is being watched as
strong southerly winds develop by Monday afternoon. Based on
latest guidance, this will coincide with the high tide which has
potential to cause some minor coastal flooding. Will wait for the
next model run to get a better handle on the exact timing of these
winds since the alignment with high tide will be the key factor
for flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A shortwave tracking through the Eastern Aleutians this evening
combined with a building upstream ridge will result in gusty
northwesterly gap winds along the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula tonight before diminishing by early Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a storm force North Pacific low is tracking just west
of the Aleutian chain this evening which will result in the
development of strong southwesterly to southerly flow across the
Western Aleutians. This system tracks into the western Bering by
Monday with the associated weather front positioned over Unalaska
northward into the northern Bering. This feature will bring a
large swath of abundant moisture/stratus with gale force southerly
winds as it moves across the Bering/Aleutians as we head into
Monday. As the cooler air wraps around the low pressure system,
look for gale force westerly winds to develop in the western
Bering resulting in a showery weather regime by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast confidence is improving on the timing and intensity of
a strong front moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf for
the middle of next week. This will bring gusty winds and heavy
rain to Kodiak Island starting Tuesday evening, before spreading
into the Gulf Coast where it will bring widespread gale force
winds and heavy rain to much of the Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
For interior Southcentral, downsloping will prevent the heaviest
rain from falling over the population centers, however a significant
amount of available moisture from this system will likely keep
light rain over the area for the middle of next week. There is
also decent agreement that a triple point low developing over the
western Gulf on Wednesday will bring gusty northerly winds from
Cook Inlet into the Matanuska Valley. However, there isn't enough
confidence at this point to determine how strong these might be.
As a result, winds were conservatively increased throughout the
Cook Inlet region today, but these may need to be increased
further if confidence in this solution increases. The other
concern from this system rests with how much rain may fall along
the Gulf Coast. The good news is that there is good confidence
that ridging over the panhandle will be much weaker than expected
a few days ago, and as a result the chances of a prolonged period
of heavy rain during the middle of next week is lower than it was
a few days ago.

By late next week the models really begin to struggle as another
much deeper system quickly develops in the North Pacific and
moves into the Gulf. The exact impacts from this system is tough
to tell with large model spread, however is very likely that
active weather will continue throughout the Gulf and south
Mainland through the work week. This could include a potential
for continued heavy rain and significant winds throughout the
Gulf, as well as the chance of a significant wind storm into
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177
178 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK