Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

658 
FZAK52 PAFC 160000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161230-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 950 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 966 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ150-161230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161230-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161230-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA...ENDING THE SNOW. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
RAPIDLY NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE
IS SERVING TO CREATE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT OVER
A LARGELY STAGNANT AND MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPPER COOK
INLET REGION. THE RESULT IS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG
FORMATION.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE AKPEN AND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS.

WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND (ALONG 42N
LATITUDE)...A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE SPRAWLING COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONSOLIDATES INTO THE ONE BROAD LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.
THE EC IS NOW AN OUTLIER MODEL TOWARD SATURDAY AS A GALE TO
STORM FORCE WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A RIDGE IS MOVING IN TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL PRESENT A
CHALLENGE WITH FOG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN INTENSE
STORM WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE GULF COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A
BARRIER JET IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST IT SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW TO MIX OUT THE FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM STRETCHING ZONALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AROUND 50N. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE UP
AROUND IT AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY FILL AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
IMPACT WISE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS RAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE AREA AND SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY COULD SEE MESSIER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT TROUGH ROTATES
OVERHEAD.

A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW STRONGER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
TRACKING UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION. WEAKENING FRONTS AND TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP AND FALL APART AS THEY CROSS THE GULF.

FURTHER OUT WEST...TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY...THOUGH NONE LOOK PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED. A
SURFACE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT WEST AND FILL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FROM BOTH THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND INTO RUSSIA MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 131 138 160 165 170 171 172 177 179 180 181 185.
         STORM 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR