Gale Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

905 
FZAK62 PAFC 160000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161430-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ411-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

123 
FZAK62 PAFC 161235
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170245-
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 MB LOW NEAR 51N 157W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE
WEAKENING TO 974 MB THROUGH MON MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-170245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-170245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-170245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-170245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
335 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

069 
FZAK62 PAFC 170000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171430-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
54N 177W SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES TO NEAR 52N 179E AT 984 MB
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA...ENDING THE SNOW. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
RAPIDLY NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE
IS SERVING TO CREATE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT OVER
A LARGELY STAGNANT AND MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPPER COOK
INLET REGION. THE RESULT IS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG
FORMATION.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE AKPEN AND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS.

WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND (ALONG 42N
LATITUDE)...A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE SPRAWLING COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONSOLIDATES INTO THE ONE BROAD LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.
THE EC IS NOW AN OUTLIER MODEL TOWARD SATURDAY AS A GALE TO
STORM FORCE WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A RIDGE IS MOVING IN TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL PRESENT A
CHALLENGE WITH FOG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN INTENSE
STORM WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE GULF COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A
BARRIER JET IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST IT SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW TO MIX OUT THE FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM STRETCHING ZONALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AROUND 50N. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE UP
AROUND IT AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY FILL AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
IMPACT WISE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS RAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE AREA AND SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY COULD SEE MESSIER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT TROUGH ROTATES
OVERHEAD.

A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW STRONGER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
TRACKING UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION. WEAKENING FRONTS AND TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP AND FALL APART AS THEY CROSS THE GULF.

FURTHER OUT WEST...TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY...THOUGH NONE LOOK PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED. A
SURFACE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT WEST AND FILL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FROM BOTH THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND INTO RUSSIA MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 131 138 160 165 170 171 172 177 179 180 181 185.
         STORM 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR