Small Craft Advisory 51, NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
FZAK51 PAFC 160005
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161300-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SITKA
AT 972 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161300-
PORT VALDEZ-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161300-
VALDEZ ARM-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161300-
CHINIAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161300-
MARMOT BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA...ENDING THE SNOW. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
RAPIDLY NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE
IS SERVING TO CREATE SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT OVER
A LARGELY STAGNANT AND MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPPER COOK
INLET REGION. THE RESULT IS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG
FORMATION.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE AKPEN AND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS.

WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND (ALONG 42N
LATITUDE)...A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE SPRAWLING COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONSOLIDATES INTO THE ONE BROAD LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.
THE EC IS NOW AN OUTLIER MODEL TOWARD SATURDAY AS A GALE TO
STORM FORCE WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A RIDGE IS MOVING IN TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL PRESENT A
CHALLENGE WITH FOG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN INTENSE
STORM WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE GULF COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A
BARRIER JET IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST IT SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF
AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW TO MIX OUT THE FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM STRETCHING ZONALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AROUND 50N. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE UP
AROUND IT AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY FILL AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
IMPACT WISE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS RAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE AREA AND SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY COULD SEE MESSIER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT TROUGH ROTATES
OVERHEAD.

A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW STRONGER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
TRACKING UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION. WEAKENING FRONTS AND TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP AND FALL APART AS THEY CROSS THE GULF.

FURTHER OUT WEST...TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY...THOUGH NONE LOOK PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED. A
SURFACE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT WEST AND FILL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FROM BOTH THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND INTO RUSSIA MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 131 138 160 165 170 171 172 177 179 180 181 185.
         STORM 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR