Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

272 
FZAK51 PAFC 151220
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160145-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF SAT MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-160145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160145-
PORT VALDEZ-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160145-
VALDEZ ARM-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160145-
CHINIAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160145-
MARMOT BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

264 
FZAK51 PAFC 160005
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161300-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SITKA
AT 972 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161300-
PORT VALDEZ-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161300-
VALDEZ ARM-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161300-
CHINIAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161300-
MARMOT BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THIS MORNING AS A PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE UPPER COOK
INLET REGION DISSIPATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AS A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS
RIDGE IS ALSO PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...LEADING TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HELPS TO SCOUR OUT
MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG WHICH HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE
WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED
WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS
THE AKPEN AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE SPRAWLING COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
CONSOLIDATES INTO ONE BROAD LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THE NAM
BECOMES AN OUTLIER BY LATE FRIDAY IN BRINGING AN UPPER LOW BACK
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM THE NORTHEAST AND UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE. THEREFORE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW AS IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. MAINLY UTILIZED THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN (GEM) MODEL FOR ITS SUPERIOR RESOLUTION GIVEN
THE STRONG OVERALL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST AND EXIT INTO CANADA LATER TODAY. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THIS RIDGE...IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS WILL COMPETE AGAINST STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL TRY AND DRY OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT IS DUE IN PART TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT WILL MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LEADING EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF FRIDAY AND BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STRETCH EASTWARD FROM KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW
OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WITH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN INCREASE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A MUCH DEEPER NORTH PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE AKPEN...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO COASTAL BRISTOL
BAY ON FRIDAY. RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR HOWEVER WILL PREVENT THIS
DEEP SYSTEM FROM IMPACTING MUCH MORE THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
BRISTOL BAY...AS SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA (DAYS
1 AND 2)...

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEK...STARTING WITH A COMPLEX LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AS WELL AS
RAIN/SNOW TO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS TODAY...AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. A MUCH DEEPER NORTH PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING THE AKPEN ON FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW EXPECTED TO BRING
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE AKPEN AND SURROUNDING WATERS STARTING ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD GALE (OR POSSIBLY STORM) FORCE
WINDS TO THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW VERY
SLOWLY WEAKENS. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS...AS THE WEST WILL SEE DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

EC AND GFS ARE IN BRIEF AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
BECOMING DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. A TRANSPACIFIC JET WILL RUN
UP AGAINST A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FRI AND
SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THROUGH SUN. AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF WPC IS USED, WHICH BEARS A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE
EC AT TIMES. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN DRIFTS SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH TUE AND THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW
THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF LATER ON THU.
THE FORECAST EXHIBITS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THEN THE ENSEMBLE INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
WEEK.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY IN THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE AKPEN...SNOW SHOWERS SWITCHING TO RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL THEN BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST INTO WED...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS...150 155.
		 GALES...131 132 138 160 165 170 171
				 172 173 177 178 179 180 185.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...DS