Small Craft Advisory 324, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 12, 2016, 3:19 PM AKDT (23:19 UTC)

Expired

Apr 13, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK51 PAFC 122319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131145-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1001 MB
WED AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES BY THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-131145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-131145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-131145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-131145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-131145-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-131145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-131145-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-131145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-131145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-131145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-131145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-131145-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-131145-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-131145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-131145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-131145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ141-131145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW WIND
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 12, 5:20 AM AKDT, 9 hours 59 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BERING AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY
FOCUSED OVER THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST
AND FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE. A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF IS BRINGING STEADIER RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND. WEAK RIDGING
NOSING IN FROM WESTERN CANADA IS PROMOTING FAIRLY BENIGN PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CURRENT GULF LOW DISSIPATES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MAINLY UTILIZED THE NAM FOR
ENHANCED DETAIL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK. USED THE GFS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN...PRIMARILY FOR ITS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOLUTION FOR WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...IS DRIFTING TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD...A CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MAINLAND AND A LOW IN THE GULF WILL SUPPORT OFFSHORE FLOW
AND FURTHER DRYING. WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE IN PLACE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR RECORD LEVELS
ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TODAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS SKIES REMAIN CLOUDIER THAN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE. ONCE THIS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT GALE FORCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL RIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVENTING MUCH OF THE
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING INTO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND/OR WET SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CHAIN WITH VERY LITTLE (IF ANY)
ACCUMULATION...WITH NO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. WITH THIS SOUTHERN
TRACK...THE PRIBILOFS WILL BE LARGELY SPARED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A SERIES OF BERING LOWS WEAKEN
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHOWERY
PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS INTERIOR INLAND MOUNTAINS. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT...WHICH ACTS TO DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCALES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SPRING CONTINUES TO ROLL ON AT AN
ACCELERATED PACE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 131 150 174 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JA

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.