Gale Warning 353, NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK51 PAFC 122319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131145-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1001 MB
WED AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES BY THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-131145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-131145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-131145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-131145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-131145-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-131145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-131145-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-131145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-131145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-131145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-131145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-131145-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-131145-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-131145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-131145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-131145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ141-131145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW WIND
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW
COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO A STACKED UPPER CENTER NEAR
50N 155W. NUMEROUS WEAK SURFACE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND KENAI PEN WITH SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SHOWERS BECAME MORE
NUMEROUS AGAIN ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WHERE THEY WERE
MIXED WITH SNOW. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF A NORTH ADVANCING WEATHER
FRONT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WERE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NUMEROUS
BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (THROUGH WED AFTERNOON)...
MODELS OVERALL WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...THOUGH
THE GFS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM BECAME AN OUTLIER. IN
THE EAST...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WAS PREFERRED THROUGH TUE
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE EC ON WED. OUT WEST...A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC WERE USED THROUGH WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IT WILL PUSH IN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO HELP
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST
INLAND ELEVATIONS WHERE IT WILL BE SNOW. THROUGH TUE...THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF AK. THIS WILL HELP
TO INCREASE SOME DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND BRING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. THE ONE HOLD OUT WILL BE THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD PERSIST TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS ON TUE WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIVEN MOSTLY BY TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
(SEWARD...KNIK ARM...ETC)

BY WED...THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE LINGERS IN THE GULF. IT HELPS TO
SWING A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM CORDOVA
TOWARDS THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE THE STEADIER RAIN
LOOKS TO HUG THE COAST...THIS WAVE COULD BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL WED
EVENING INTO THU MORNING. AS A NEW FRONT APPROACHES THU...EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH AND CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LOW
LYING AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING SUNNY SKIES BACK TO THE REGION WITH ONLY
A CHANCE OF SPOTTY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PRIBILOFS. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AKPEN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...BUT CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OUT OF SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY
WHEN A WELL-ORGANIZED GALE FORCE FRONT BEGINS TO GRAZE THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW TO FALL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNWARD WITH QPF GIVEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM
TRACK WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A SERIES OF BERING LOWS WEAKEN
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHOWERY
PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS INTERIOR INLAND MOUNTAINS. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT...WHICH ACTS TO DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCALES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SPRING CONTINUES TO ROLL ON AT AN
ACCELERATED PACE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 138 150 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...JA