Gale Warning 354, NWS Anchorage, AK

037 
FZAK52 PAFC 122245
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131130-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT. A 973 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB 175 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 989 MB 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131130-
BRISTOL BAY-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 20 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131130-
UNALASKA BAY-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY BECOMING SE WIND
25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EARLY EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW
COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO A STACKED UPPER CENTER NEAR
50N 155W. NUMEROUS WEAK SURFACE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND KENAI PEN WITH SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SHOWERS BECAME MORE
NUMEROUS AGAIN ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WHERE THEY WERE
MIXED WITH SNOW. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF A NORTH ADVANCING WEATHER
FRONT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WERE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NUMEROUS
BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (THROUGH WED AFTERNOON)...
MODELS OVERALL WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...THOUGH
THE GFS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM BECAME AN OUTLIER. IN
THE EAST...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WAS PREFERRED THROUGH TUE
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE EC ON WED. OUT WEST...A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE NAM/EC WERE USED THROUGH WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IT WILL PUSH IN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO HELP
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST
INLAND ELEVATIONS WHERE IT WILL BE SNOW. THROUGH TUE...THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF AK. THIS WILL HELP
TO INCREASE SOME DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND BRING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. THE ONE HOLD OUT WILL BE THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD PERSIST TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS ON TUE WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIVEN MOSTLY BY TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
(SEWARD...KNIK ARM...ETC)

BY WED...THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE LINGERS IN THE GULF. IT HELPS TO
SWING A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM CORDOVA
TOWARDS THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE THE STEADIER RAIN
LOOKS TO HUG THE COAST...THIS WAVE COULD BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL WED
EVENING INTO THU MORNING. AS A NEW FRONT APPROACHES THU...EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH AND CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE LOW
LYING AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING SUNNY SKIES BACK TO THE REGION WITH ONLY
A CHANCE OF SPOTTY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PRIBILOFS. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AKPEN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...BUT CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OUT OF SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY
WHEN A WELL-ORGANIZED GALE FORCE FRONT BEGINS TO GRAZE THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW TO FALL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNWARD WITH QPF GIVEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE STORM
TRACK WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A SERIES OF BERING LOWS WEAKEN
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHOWERY
PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS INTERIOR INLAND MOUNTAINS. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT...WHICH ACTS TO DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCALES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SPRING CONTINUES TO ROLL ON AT AN
ACCELERATED PACE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 138 150 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...JA