Small Craft Advisory 323, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 12, 2016, 2:45 PM AKDT (22:45 UTC)

Expired

Apr 13, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

037 
FZAK52 PAFC 122245
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131130-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT. A 973 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB 175 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 989 MB 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131130-
BRISTOL BAY-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 20 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131130-
UNALASKA BAY-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY BECOMING SE WIND
25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EARLY EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
245 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 12, 5:20 AM AKDT, 9 hours 25 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BERING AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY
FOCUSED OVER THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST
AND FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE. A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF IS BRINGING STEADIER RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND. WEAK RIDGING
NOSING IN FROM WESTERN CANADA IS PROMOTING FAIRLY BENIGN PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CURRENT GULF LOW DISSIPATES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MAINLY UTILIZED THE NAM FOR
ENHANCED DETAIL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK. USED THE GFS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN...PRIMARILY FOR ITS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOLUTION FOR WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...IS DRIFTING TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD...A CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MAINLAND AND A LOW IN THE GULF WILL SUPPORT OFFSHORE FLOW
AND FURTHER DRYING. WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE IN PLACE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR RECORD LEVELS
ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TODAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS SKIES REMAIN CLOUDIER THAN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE. ONCE THIS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NEXT GALE FORCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL RIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVENTING MUCH OF THE
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING INTO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND/OR WET SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CHAIN WITH VERY LITTLE (IF ANY)
ACCUMULATION...WITH NO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. WITH THIS SOUTHERN
TRACK...THE PRIBILOFS WILL BE LARGELY SPARED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
ONLY CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A SERIES OF BERING LOWS WEAKEN
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHOWERY
PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS INTERIOR INLAND MOUNTAINS. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT...WHICH ACTS TO DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCALES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SPRING CONTINUES TO ROLL ON AT AN
ACCELERATED PACE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 131 150 174 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JA

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.