Small Craft Advisory 172, NWS Anchorage, AK

188 
FZAK51 PAFC 211754 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

UPDATED AREA 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220415-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR SEWARD LATE THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-220415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220415-
PORT VALDEZ-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220415-
VALDEZ ARM-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220415-
CHINIAK BAY-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220415-
MARMOT BAY-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
854 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

560 
FZAK51 PAFC 220023
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221345-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SUN EVENING. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GULF
TUE.

$$

PKZ119-221345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY EARLY EVENING.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221345-
PORT VALDEZ-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221345-
VALDEZ ARM-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING SE 15
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221345-
CHINIAK BAY-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221345-
MARMOT BAY-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
323 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

942 
FZAK51 PAFC 221231
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230145-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MON NIGHT
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUE NIGHT. 


$$

PKZ119-230145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230145-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230145-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230145-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230145-
MARMOT BAY-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 AM AKST MON FEB 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT IS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN GULF...THEN EXTENDING WELL SOUTH TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AT 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 139 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THIS FRONT IS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL JETS
AND CONTAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE. STORM FORCE WINDS STRETCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS AN ELONGATED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST RIDGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOW SOME VARIABILITY ON
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS. MOST IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST IS WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND WILL OCCUR INLAND FOR THE
SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL INTRUDE INLAND. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND PUSHING INLAND OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WORKING NORTH OVER ANCHORAGE ON
SUNDAY...PRODUCING AN ASTONISHING 1.35 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ANCHORAGE AIRPORT. THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM (AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE ECMWF) KEEP THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
KENAI UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO THERE
IS A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST POPULATED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (ANCHORAGE THROUGH WASILLA/PALMER)
CREATING A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THUS
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ALL 12Z MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS CONVERGED ON THE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCOMING STORM SLATED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT SNOW AMOUNTS AT SEA LEVEL WILL BE TRENDED DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDED UPWARDS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS WILL MEAN HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TOWARD HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN PASS...AND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA ALONG THE STERLING HIGHWAY EAST OF SOLDOTNA. FOR
ANCHORAGE...THIS WILL MEAN THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW
TONIGHT...THEN PRONOUNCED WARMING TAKES PLACE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD VALDEZ...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW EXPECTED...STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD EXTEND WELL
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY AND MAY EXTEND IN GUSTS ALL THE
WAY TO NEAR WHITTIER AND PORTAGE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE...BUT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR ISSUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET CHARACTER
OF THE SNOW.

WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE SNOWFALL
AND WIND FORECASTS...EVEN MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE LOW TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT RESULTS. ONE
SHOULD STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BERING EARLY
SUNDAY AND TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS IN THE
AREA WILL BE MORE EASTERLY TODAY BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. AN INCREASE IN
SNOW AND PROGRESSION OF SNOW MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE LOW TRACKING FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ALSO
PULL UP ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR AREAS AROUND BRISTOL BAY TO SEE RAIN
MIX IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE WARMER PARTS OF THE DAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF IT
TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A DECENT SNOW COULD BRING ABOUT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ONLY BRING LIGHTER SNOW AND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WARM SOLUTION RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE FORECAST REASONING FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 HAS CHANGED LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AT THE START OF THE
MID-TERM...THE 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL START
TO MERGE WITH THE 975 MB LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. MOVING INTO DAY 4 /EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING/ A
CONSOLIDATED LOW IN THE MID-960MB RANGE WILL BE CENTERED ABOUT
300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THROUGH FRIDAY THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND EVOLVE INTO A BROAD LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW...AT THIS POINT CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LONG TERM OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE REGION WILL STAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KODIAK ISLAND...AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SPILLOVER
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE DOWNSLOPED FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...125
		WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...101 121 131
MARINE...STORMS...119 125 131
GALES...120 127 128 129 130 132 139 150 177 178
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF