Brisk Wind Advisory 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

819 
FZAK52 PAFC 220014
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221300-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN WILL MOVE TO TOGIAK AT 993 MB SUN
NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE MON. A 963 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 525 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 972
MB TUE AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT AT 962 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221300-
BRISTOL BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 5
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221300-
UNALASKA BAY-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-221300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
314 PM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT IS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN GULF...THEN EXTENDING WELL SOUTH TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AT 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 139 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THIS FRONT IS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL JETS
AND CONTAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE. STORM FORCE WINDS STRETCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS AN ELONGATED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST RIDGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOW SOME VARIABILITY ON
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS. MOST IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST IS WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND WILL OCCUR INLAND FOR THE
SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL INTRUDE INLAND. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND PUSHING INLAND OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WORKING NORTH OVER ANCHORAGE ON
SUNDAY...PRODUCING AN ASTONISHING 1.35 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ANCHORAGE AIRPORT. THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM (AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE ECMWF) KEEP THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
KENAI UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO THERE
IS A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST POPULATED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (ANCHORAGE THROUGH WASILLA/PALMER)
CREATING A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THUS
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ALL 12Z MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS CONVERGED ON THE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCOMING STORM SLATED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT SNOW AMOUNTS AT SEA LEVEL WILL BE TRENDED DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDED UPWARDS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS WILL MEAN HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TOWARD HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN PASS...AND FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA ALONG THE STERLING HIGHWAY EAST OF SOLDOTNA. FOR
ANCHORAGE...THIS WILL MEAN THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW
TONIGHT...THEN PRONOUNCED WARMING TAKES PLACE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE ENDING. TOWARD VALDEZ...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW EXPECTED...STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD EXTEND WELL
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY AND MAY EXTEND IN GUSTS ALL THE
WAY TO NEAR WHITTIER AND PORTAGE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE...BUT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR ISSUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET CHARACTER
OF THE SNOW.

WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE SNOWFALL
AND WIND FORECASTS...EVEN MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE LOW TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT RESULTS. ONE
SHOULD STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BERING EARLY
SUNDAY AND TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS IN THE
AREA WILL BE MORE EASTERLY TODAY BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. AN INCREASE IN
SNOW AND PROGRESSION OF SNOW MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE LOW TRACKING FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ALSO
PULL UP ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR AREAS AROUND BRISTOL BAY TO SEE RAIN
MIX IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE WARMER PARTS OF THE DAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF IT
TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A DECENT SNOW COULD BRING ABOUT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ONLY BRING LIGHTER SNOW AND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WARM SOLUTION RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE FORECAST REASONING FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 HAS CHANGED LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AT THE START OF THE
MID-TERM...THE 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL START
TO MERGE WITH THE 975 MB LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. MOVING INTO DAY 4 /EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING/ A
CONSOLIDATED LOW IN THE MID-960MB RANGE WILL BE CENTERED ABOUT
300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THROUGH FRIDAY THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND EVOLVE INTO A BROAD LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW...AT THIS POINT CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LONG TERM OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE REGION WILL STAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LARGE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KODIAK ISLAND...AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SPILLOVER
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS TIME THAT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE DOWNSLOPED FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...125
		WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...101 121 131
MARINE...STORMS...119 125 131
GALES...120 127 128 129 130 132 139 150 177 178
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF