Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

766 
FZAK52 PAFC 141209 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

CORRECTED

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150130-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER UNALASKA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MON MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA LATE MON NIGHT.


$$

PKZ150-150130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-150130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-150130-
BRISTOL BAY-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-150130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ170-150130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-150130-
UNALASKA BAY-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-150130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-150130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-150130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-150130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-150130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-150130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ178-150130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ179-150130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-150130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-150130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-150130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
309 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 60N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 60N.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

055 
FZAK52 PAFC 142355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151230-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW CENTERED OVER UNALASKA WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 978 MB LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE TO 370 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON AND
STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER RUSSIA TUE
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MON
MORNING AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-151230-
BRISTOL BAY-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-151230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-151230-
UNALASKA BAY-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ174-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ176-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ177-151230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ178-151230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ179-151230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-151230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-151230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-151230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
255 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THE JET
STREAM LIES MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...MOVING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING INTO THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND ARE FAIRLY WEAK.

AT THE SURFACE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE MOMENT A STRONGER LOW CENTER IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WEAK TROUGHING IS
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING...AK
PEN...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SURFACE FLOW IN THIS AREA REMAINS
NORTHERLY AND PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM SAINT PAUL THROUGH
KING SALMON THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS SOUTH REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN.

THIS SECOND LOW IN THE GULF OF AK HAS A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARD THE PANHANDLE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF
A LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT MOVED ONSHORE YESTERDAY ARE
LINGERING OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL.
AS THE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EASTERLY WINDS INCREASED A
BIT IN SOUTHCENTRAL BUT AS THE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE DROPPED OFF SO HAVE THE WINDS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE IMPROVING AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH WEAK INTERIM RIDGING MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW IN THE GULF DURING THE
INITIALIZATION THEY COME TOGETHER QUICKLY AND BY THE FORECAST
PERIOD ARE PRETTY MUCH IN STEP. CANADIAN REGIONAL (GEM) WAS CHOSEN
AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY FOR THE BEST TIMING AND RESOLUTION ON
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS TROUGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION FOCUSED
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACK INLAND AND ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. THE FIRST OF
THESE WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU REGIONS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PUSHING UP THE INLET ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A DRYING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ON MONDAY AS
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME FINALLY WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAKENING LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THEN
WEAKEN AND STALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND A
SLOW DRYING TREND DEVELOPS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SKIRT THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG GALE FORCE
WEATHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING
MONDAY AND MAKE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A DRY PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ALASKA. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A PATTERN CHANGE IN WHICH THE STORM TRACK IS TAKING
A MORE NORTHERLY PATH. THE STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DRIVE THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LEADING FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA BUT NOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SPLIT AS IT HITS THE ALASKAN
RIDGE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BREAK INTO
TWO LOWS...WITH ONE OF THESE MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF
THIS WILL DRIVE THE MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY...THEN ON A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER ON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 131 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...BL