Gale Warning 118, NWS Anchorage, AK

912 
FZAK62 PAFC 151204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160215-
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N 163W WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DISSIPATE. A 966 MB LOW 53N 163E WILL 
STRENGTHEN TO 961 MB BEFORE MOVING INLAND NEAR 60N 168E LATE
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER WESTERN BERING MOVES TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
175E.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO
13 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 AM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

770 
FZAK62 PAFC 160006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161445-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW
FORMS AT 53N 179W TUE MORNING AND MOVES TO 59N 171W AT 968 MB TUE
NIGHT THEN SHIFTS TO 64N 180 AT 963 MB BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 13 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
306 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

106 
FZAK62 PAFC 161226
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW
AT 51N 177W MOVES TO 62N 175W AT 970 MB TUE NIGHT THEN MAKES 
LANDFALL AT 966 MB OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

456 
FZAK62 PAFC 162356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171445-
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW AT 58N 174W MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AT 966
MB WED AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 56N 157W WED MORNING
AND DRIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THU. A 993 MB LOW NEAR 51N
161E WED MORNING MOVES TO 57N 179W AT 965 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-171445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
256 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

689 
FZAK62 PAFC 171215
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180215-
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 MB LOW NEAR 63N 175W MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA WED NIGHT. A
983 MB LOW NEAR 53N 164E WED AFTERNOON MOVES TO 56N 172E AT 966 MB
LATE WED NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 60N 176E AT 963 MB LATE THU NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED
AFTERNOON...AND MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-180215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N IN THE EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N IN THE EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
W OF 177W IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 177W.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

710 
FZAK62 PAFC 180001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW NEAR 64N 180 MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA LATE TONIGHT.
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 53N 164E MOVES TO 59N 171E AT 973 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
A 976 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 52N 169W LATE THU AND MOVES TO 52N
164W AT 966 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N IN THE EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 174W.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON W OF 178W.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
301 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 58N.
.THU...S TO W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

497 
FZAK62 PAFC 181242
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190230-
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 56N 172E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 955 MB NEAR 59N 177E
LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 985 MB BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. A 975
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 53N 169W LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME PART
OF A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-190230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S TO W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 29 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-190230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-190230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-190230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

960 
FZAK62 PAFC 190018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191545-
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 MB LOW NEAR 58N 175E MOVES TO 59N 167E EARLY SAT AT 994 MB
AND DISSIPATES. A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 53N 173W FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES PART OF A COMPLEX LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-191545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
W OF 175E IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
S OF 57N.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-191545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 174W.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
174W.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-191545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-191545-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

283 
FZAK62 PAFC 191213
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200215-
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 59N 175E MOVES TO 60N 170E FRI AFTERNOON AT 980 MB
AND DISSIPATES. A 973 MB LOW NEAR 52N 169W WILL BECOME PART OF A
COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 54N 156W BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-200215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-200215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-200215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-200215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
313 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
447 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF IT...ALLOWING RIDGES TO BUILD EAST AND
WEST OF IT. THE RIDGE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FOR THE JET TO ENCROACH OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...WHICH HELPS TO KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE JET. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO FINALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PROGRESSION
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...EVEN IF BRIEFLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN BERING IS COLLOCATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER
MARMOT BAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE TALKEETNAS...CHUGACH...AND KENAI MOUNTAINS
BEING DRAWN TOWARDS THE LOW ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS VERY MILD
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...FOLLOWING A PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
INCREDIBLY PERSISTENT THIS WINTER. ANCHORAGE HAD ITS WARMEST DAY
OF 2016 SO FAR YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. ANCHORAGE'S SOUNDING SHOWS
THAT OTHER THAN A SHALLOW LAYER OF NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...ABOVE THAT THE WINDS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS ARE BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY WARM.

GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR KODIAK IS
KEEPING CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS
DRY AIR FROM THE INTERIOR MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST. DESPITE
THIS...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PLENTIFUL AS MOISTURE
CLEARS THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS AND OVERSPREADS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUCCESSFULLY CLEARING THE ALEUTIAN
MOUNTAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE FLOW THERE IS LESS
CROSS-BARRIER.

OVER THE BERING...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PLENTIFUL. BETWEEN THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING...THE ENCROACHING
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS...AND
EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AND IN BETWEEN
THEM...CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY AREA-WIDE. FORTUNATELY SINCE NONE OF
THESE FEATURES ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT BERING SEA-WIDE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS INITIATED IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PRIMARY
FEATURES AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE BERING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THEM ARISE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW IN
THE FAR WESTERN BERING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS NOW...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT
OF THE MODELS BRINGING A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW
ACROSS THE BERING. THE EC HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER...FLIP-FLOPPING
AROUND THE GFS POSITION. IN THE LATEST RUNS...THE EC HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. FOR LOCAL EFFECTS...THE CANADIAN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NORMAL.

ON THE EAST SIDE...THERE ARE FEW FEATURES OF NOTE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOR THE MODELS TO DISAGREE ON. THE LOW OVER
KODIAK ISLAND IS UNANIMOUSLY AGREED UPON TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THAT...A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOMETIME TUESDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE DETAILS OF THAT
LOW...NONE OF THOSE DISCREPANCIES HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
IN SOUTHCENTRAL OR THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
GULF TO THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. THIS IS CAUSING
THIS MORNING'S GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RADAR LOOKS ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE FIRST BEING THAT THERE WILL BE LESS PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS WAVE AND THEREFORE LESS SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM RESULTING
IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT SEA
LEVEL. AFTER THIS WAVE THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER KODIAK WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE
WEAKENING TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGHER
PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND A SLOW DRYING TREND DEVELOPS. A STRONG
GALE-FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD WET AND WINDY
CONDITIONS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A DRY PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ALASKA. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A PATTERN CHANGE IN WHICH THE STORM TRACK IS TAKING
A MORE NORTHERLY PATH. THE STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DRIVE THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LEADING FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA BUT NOT INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SPLIT AS IT HITS THE ALASKAN
RIDGE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BREAK INTO
TWO LOWS...WITH ONE OF THESE MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF
THIS WILL DRIVE THE MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY...THEN ON A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER ON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 139 178
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...BL