Gale Warning 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

125 
FZAK51 PAFC 142013
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150415-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 25 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
KAMISHAK BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A TROUGH WILL LINGER
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-150415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150415-
PORT VALDEZ-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150415-
VALDEZ ARM-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150415-
CHINIAK BAY-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150415-
MARMOT BAY-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1113 AM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT WITH BECOMING SE 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

071 
FZAK51 PAFC 150033
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151400-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151400-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151400-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151400-
MARMOT BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THE JET
STREAM LIES MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...MOVING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING INTO THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND ARE FAIRLY WEAK.

AT THE SURFACE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE MOMENT A STRONGER LOW CENTER IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WEAK TROUGHING IS
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING...AK
PEN...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SURFACE FLOW IN THIS AREA REMAINS
NORTHERLY AND PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM SAINT PAUL THROUGH
KING SALMON THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS SOUTH REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN.

THIS SECOND LOW IN THE GULF OF AK HAS A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARD THE PANHANDLE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF
A LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT MOVED ONSHORE YESTERDAY ARE
LINGERING OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL.
AS THE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EASTERLY WINDS INCREASED A
BIT IN SOUTHCENTRAL BUT AS THE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE DROPPED OFF SO HAVE THE WINDS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE IMPROVING AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH WEAK INTERIM RIDGING MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW IN THE GULF DURING THE
INITIALIZATION THEY COME TOGETHER QUICKLY AND BY THE FORECAST
PERIOD ARE PRETTY MUCH IN STEP. CANADIAN REGIONAL (GEM) WAS CHOSEN
AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY FOR THE BEST TIMING AND RESOLUTION ON
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS TROUGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION FOCUSED
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACK INLAND AND ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. THE FIRST OF
THESE WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU REGIONS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
PUSHING UP THE INLET ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A DRYING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ON MONDAY AS
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME FINALLY WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAKENING LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THEN
WEAKEN AND STALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND A
SLOW DRYING TREND DEVELOPS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SKIRT THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG GALE FORCE
WEATHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING
MONDAY AND MAKE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A DRY PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ALASKA. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A PATTERN CHANGE IN WHICH THE STORM TRACK IS TAKING
A MORE NORTHERLY PATH. THE STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DRIVE THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LEADING FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA BUT NOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SPLIT AS IT HITS THE ALASKAN
RIDGE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BREAK INTO
TWO LOWS...WITH ONE OF THESE MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS. ALL OF
THIS WILL DRIVE THE MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY...THEN ON A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER ON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 131 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...BL