Gale Warning 716, NWS Anchorage, AK

212 
FZAK51 PAFC 150054
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW CENTERED 190 NM EAST OF SITKINAK WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT ERODES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY WED.

$$

PKZ119-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING 
TO 9 FT BY LATE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151400-
PORT VALDEZ-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151400-
VALDEZ ARM-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151400-
CHINIAK BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151400-
MARMOT BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

691 
FZAK51 PAFC 151259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160130-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

THE BROAD 991 MB LOW CENTERED 300 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WED AND WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-160130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160130-
PORT VALDEZ-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160130-
VALDEZ ARM-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160130-
CHINIAK BAY-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160130-
MARMOT BAY-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
359 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There are two main upper level features: a large upper low over
eastern Russia and a secondary upper level low complex extending
from south of the Ak Pen to near Kodiak Island. The latter feature
is serving as the focus of the weather in southern Alaska. The
upper level ridge extends out of western Canada and into the
interior of Alaska providing a fairly strong east to southeast
flow aloft over the Gulf of Alaska. The 250 mb jet stream runs
south of the low near Kodiak and remains well south of the
forecast area.

At the surface there is a complex low that is near Kodiak Island.
This low has a main center near the southern extent of the Island
but a weaker one that is south of it which will not get absorbed
into the main low but they will rotate around each other.
The size of the low in the Gulf is keeping the Bering sea in persistent
northerly flow which is bringing colder air into the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest concern with the performance of the models is in
regards to the wave moving along the north Gulf coast. The
satellite imagery as well as the limited observations in the
northeast Gulf indicate this impulse is stronger than models are
showing. If this is the case this has the potential to cause
stronger winds and heavier rainfall than previously expected along
the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound areas.

Models are also having a difficult time resolving the details of
the complex low that is in the western Gulf of Alaska near Kodiak
Island. There will be multiple centers in it which is reflected by
models not named GFS. However the development and movement of the
lows as they rotate around each other is producing different
solutions to when the strongest winds and best chances of rain
will be in the western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The biggest question for the TAF will be whether any low
level wind shear develops in the area this afternoon through
tonight. Surface winds look to remain northerly but the winds
aloft will become more from the east. At this time it appears that
any wind shear will be above the 2000 ft level for purposes of the
TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong easterly winds will accompany an occluded front as it pushes
onshore of Southcentral this afternoon and evening. This will lead
to downslope drying in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach. Kept a
chance of rain and freezing rain in some areas, but if precip does
fall it will likely be trace amounts with no impact. Upslope
conditions will develop during the evening in the Susitna Valley
and northern Copper River Basin, so do expect some light precip to
develop. Although temperatures are above freezing, wet bulb temps
are at or below freezing for much of this area, so predominant
precipitation type will be snow. The one exception is the southern
Susitna Valley, which will be right on the edge of precip. Based
on Anchorage sounding think it is probably warm enough for rain to
fall in the Houston to Willow area, so there could be some patchy
light freezing rain.

Another low will track northward into the Gulf tonight and Monday,
replacing the current one near Kodiak. This will send another
front toward the north Gulf coast Monday afternoon. The orientation
of this front will become oriented northeast to southwest which is
less favorable for downslope. In addition, all guidance indicates
a fairly robust short-wave rotating westward around the low center
and pushing precip across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. There
are some key differences in the track of this feature, so have
decided to stick with chance PoPs for now. The airmass will remain
warm, so precip-type will be rain in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low near Kodiak slowly moves in the direction of the
central and then southeastern Gulf through Tue. During this period
high pressure over the Bering will build and move east. The
pressure gradient between these features will maintain a band of
strong northerly winds across the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula, diminishing on Tue as the strong gradient moves east.
Some rain and snow showers will persist over Southwest AK as well
as the Alaska Peninsula through Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure builds into the central and eastern Bering through
Tue. This will push the band of strong northerly winds from the
eastern Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula through Tue. Some
rain and snow showers will accompany this movement.

On Mon a low southwest of Attu will move to the northern Bering on
Tue. This will bring warmer air and Small Craft winds into the
western half of the Bering, with rain over the Aleutians
spreading north through Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A relatively quiet pattern is in store for Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska through much of the extended forecast. An area of
low pressure in the southern Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday will fall
apart as it drifts eastward toward the Alaska Panhandle. As this
happens, rain/snow chances will drastically diminish across the
gulf coast and some breaks in cloud cover are expected through
much of next week. High pressure will build over the mainland in a
two-pronged attack fashion with both high pressure building
across the western Gulf of Alaska and Canada. The upper level
pattern will shift and allow colder air from the arctic to funnel
in across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. This will lead to the
end of above normal temperatures as continued cold air advection
likely drops temperature close to or slightly below normal across
much of the state. Unfortunately for snow enthusiasts, a lot of
dry air is expected with the colder air so snow looks like an
extreme long shot in the next seven to ten days.

The Bering Sea on the other hand will be quite active over the
long term forecast period as a series of lows move off the
Kamchatka Peninsula. Models are in good agreement with the first
low hanging off the coast of Kamchatka on Wednesday with a potent
gale force to storm force front moving across the western half of
the Bering Sea. Needless to say, copious amounts of rainfall are
expected with the frontal boundary as it shifts eastward before
stalling over the central Bering Sea as it clashes with the high
pressure mentioned earlier. The strongest low will move from the
North Pacific into the Bering Sea next weekend which has the
potential to produce gale to storm force winds but models are in
poor agreement with this feature at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 170 and 174. Gales 119, 120 130 131 138 139 150
155 160 165 171 172 173 175 176 177 178 180 181 185 352 412 413
414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MC