Gale Warning 665, NWS Anchorage, AK

863 
FZAK61 PAFC 141258
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150145-
358 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 975 MB LOW AT 55N 156W SPLITS AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXITS THE GULF NEAR 53N 139W AT 997 MB WED MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ERODES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH WED
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-150145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
358 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-150145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
358 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 AM AKST Sun Nov 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main center of the large vertically stack low remains south of
the Alaska Peninsula. Short wave troughs rotating around it spin
up surface lows which lift north through the western and central
Gulf with the associated frontal systems continuing inland across
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. The most recent frontal system
has lifted most of the way through the area with the remnants of
the inland portion lifting north into interior Alaska. The
occluded portion of the front currently stretches from the
Kuskokwim Delta and into the eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and
Eastern Aleutians with strong northerly winds. The next low is
currently centered around 54N 150W with its associated frontal
system running from west to east across the central Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically models are in good agreement with the mean pattern
of the large upper low in the southwestern Gulf, however
differences persist in the handling of the smaller scale waves.
Fair agreement also exists for the low approaching the western
Aleutians Monday and ridging building into the Bering. A blend of
the GEM/EC was preferred for the western domain and the NAM/GFS
for the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue as downsloping limits
precipitation coming across the Chugach Mountains to isolated
light showers by the time it reaches PANC. Some low level wind
shear will be near the airport, but the strongest winds are mostly
expected to be above 2000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Much of the same would be an accurate description of the short
term forecast. A mature complex low will anchor the pattern near
Kodiak Island with a frontal boundary approaching the north Gulf
coast. The front quickly weakens and pushes inland while a handful
of weaker disturbances rotate around the main system. Once again,
the majority of rain/showers will be confined to the coast, and
Kachemak Bay area overnight tonight. The remainder of inland areas
will mainly be dry but a stray shower or sprinkle could make it
over the mountains at times. Otherwise the story will be slightly
colder air in place early next week. Mostly cloudy conditions will
continue with slightly above normal temperatures and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A weak front moves east to west across the Southwest mainland this
afternoon into tonight, bringing rain mainly to the Bristol Bay
region. Snow will develop as frontogenesis occurs with colder air
moving in from the west later tonight through much of Monday across
much of the Kuskokwim Delta, with around 2 inches accumulation
possible in the Bethel area. The front begins to dry out as
northerly flow increases with the front moving back east through
Southwest Alaska Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A well-developed warm front persists from near Nunivak Island
south to the southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula. To the west of
this front, rain and snow continues to impact the Pribilofs and
Eastern Aleutians, with snow and rain showers to the west over the
central Bering and Central Aleutians. With a building ridge over
the western Bering, colder air will begin to impinge upon the
front from the west, resulting in the front beginning to slowly
move east toward the far eastern Bering and Bristol Bay areas,
with snow also becoming snow showers as the cold advection
continues from northwest to southeast.

High pressure will be moving into the western Bering Sunday and
then track across the Bering into the eastern Bering Tuesday where
it will stall. Behind the high, a new system will move in over the
Western Aleutians and western Bering Monday into Tuesday and then
gradually diminish as the energy with this system splits as it
encounters ridging the Southwest Alaska mainland.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A more progressive pattern is expected Tuesday through Sunday as
an amplification in the longwave pattern is expected. A series of
shortwaves and upper level lows are expected to push off the
Kamchatka Peninsula and move into the Northern Pacific Ocean
through the extended forecast. This will allow the persistent
upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska to finally shift eastward
while a period of unsettled weather moves back into the Bering
Sea. While models struggle quite a bit with low placement and
intensity with a series of lows in the Bering, periods of gale
force winds and heavy rain will be possible; especially over the
western half of the Bering. Southcentral and Southwest Alaska will
be on the calmer side as high pressure over Canada replaces the
broad low pressure over that has persisted for the past week or
so. As the low in the gulf shifts east, the upslope rainfall
observed across the northern gulf coast will come to an end. In
addition, the cold air advection seen over the eastern Bering will
shift across the Alaska mainland and bring a return to near normal
to slightly below normal temperatures for much of Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130-131 139 155 160 165 171 172 173 175-181
185 352 412-414.
Storm 170 174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC