Gale Warning 675, NWS Anchorage, AK

384 
FZAK61 PAFC 211229
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220130-
329 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A 986
MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 56N 145W MON NIGHT AND DRIFT TO 56N 148W AT
990 MB TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-220130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
329 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
329 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

980 
FZAK61 PAFC 220031
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221530-
331 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST SLOWLY DECAYS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW MOVES TO 56N 148W LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES TO 55N 154W AND MERGES WITH A BERING LOW TO FORM A NEW 987
MB LOW. THIS LOW THEN EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 53N 143W
AT 983 MB EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ351-221530-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
331 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-221530-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
331 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

758 
FZAK61 PAFC 221232
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230245-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 987 MB LOW AT 56N 147W WILL MERGE WITH A LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING TO BECOME A BROAD COMPLEX LOW TONIGHT. THIS
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL THEN EXIT TO THE NORTH PACIFIC WED.
$$

PKZ351-230245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-230245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The flow pattern aloft looks different, yet still the same this
morning. A baggy weak trough stretches from Kamchatka eastward
thorough the mainland with no real center or organization at all.
The active jet stream extends from east Asia through the northern
Pacific where several disturbances are combining south of the
Alaska Peninsula to re-orient the longwave pattern. A blocking
high pressure sits over the Arctic Ocean leaving much of our
forecast area under weak flow aloft.

The remnants of a dying upper low are moving inland over the
northern Gulf with the main effect being rain/snow showers. A
disorganized front stretches from the Pribilof Islands eastward
leaving a showery regime over the eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While in good synoptic agreement, the track and position of a
surface low approaching Kodiak Island are still up for debate with
the EC/GEM further north/east and the NAM/GFS further south and
west. Impacts will be how strong the northerlies get on the back
side of the system around Kodiak Island. The amount of clear sky
has given every model/MOS guidance fits with the low temperatures
lately. Beyond that, the front entering the Bering today is well
agreed upon in timing/strength.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR cigs are expected through early afternoon. Cloud bases
lower but are expected to remain VFR from 00z until around 07z
this evening with light snow possible as a warm front crosses the
area from east to west. Ceilings should rise again with frontal
passage after 07z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of snow showers is moving inland over the north Gulf
Coast this morning ahead of a warm front moving slowly northward
in the Gulf of Alaska. These snow showers will mix with or turn to
rain as temperatures warm up this afternoon. Kodiak Island will
likely get some snow this morning that turns to rain by the
afternoon with this warm front.

The timing of the front has been a little bit of a challenge as it
is associated with an elongating low which has thrown some doubt
into exactly how fast the front will move and how the low
structure will look as it becomes complex, with multiple centers, over
the next two days. The area of biggest uncertainty with all this
is over and south of the Gulf of Alaska with inland areas not
affected as much with this situation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The offshore pressure gradient will strengthen throughout the day
today which will allow northerly winds of 5 to 15 mph to be common
across much of Southwest Alaska. This will help keep fog at bay
this morning and future mornings as drier air from the interior is
advected southward. Another feature of the offshore flow is that
it will keep any snow chances at bay through at least the first
half of the week as the moisture aloft (especially within the
first several thousand feet above sea-level) diminishes significantly
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures appear likely to remain
slightly below normal through the forecast period with the
reinforcing shot of cold air from the arctic already evident
based on temperatures across much of the state this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The complex weather system yesterday with multiple low centers
across the southern Bering Sea and North Pacific is a thing of
the past. As expected, the low pressure systems have phased into a
single surface low south of the Alaska Peninsula which has been
quite evident on IR imagery and scatterometer data. A nice swath
of gale force winds will be seen near the Central Aleutians
through this afternoon before a weak ridge moves over the southern
Bering Sea. While this weak ridge will bring a brief reprieve of
strong winds and moderate to heavy rain to the Western and Central
Aleutians, an area of low pressure over the Kamchatka Peninsula will
strengthen. This low will push a gale force front across the
western Bering Sea late tonight into Monday morning and will
continue to move eastward into the eastern Bering Sea by Tuesday
morning. Luckily, by the time the low pressure system moves into
the Bering Sea on Tuesday it will have already begun to weaken so
winds in excess of 45 kt are not expected at this time. However,
due to a persistent and dynamic fetch, seas approaching or
possibly exceeding 35 ft will be possible over the western Bering
Sea on Tuesday. A decent moisture anomaly should accompany the
front as it moves into the Bering Sea which will likely produce
another shot of moderate to heavy rainfall across the Bering Sea
and Aleutians yet again.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

From previous discussion...

The active pattern will continue through next week with multiple
lows moving across the forecast area. However, the storm track
looks to largely stay south of mainland Alaska with lows moving
across the Aleutians and then into the Gulf. This setup will keep
most of the precipitation and warm air out of the mainland with
coastal areas seeing the majority of the precipitation. Although
the models disagree somewhat on the timing of the various lows,
they are in decent agreement with the position of the storm track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...119 120 130 132 138 139 150 155 165 173-178 185
				 411-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
AVIATION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK