Gale Warning 674, NWS Anchorage, AK

583 
FZAK62 PAFC 211236
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220215-
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A GALE-FORCE FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING KAMCHATKA LOW APPROACHES 55N
172E LATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND GETS ABSORBED INTO
A GULF LOW LATE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 13 TO 19 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

629 
FZAK62 PAFC 220045
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221415-
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING
LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS IN PLACE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED 973 MB LOW NEAR 55N 165E MOVES TO 57N 176W AT 989 MB
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN TO 56N 168W AT 998 MB LATE TUE NIGHT AND
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A GULF LOW. A NEW FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-221415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO
26 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

382 
FZAK62 PAFC 221232
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230230-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW AT 56N 172E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 56N 168W TONIGHT. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA EARLY WED MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-230230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-230230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-230230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-230230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

721 
FZAK62 PAFC 222157 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

UPDATED 413 AND 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231145-
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW AT 56N 172E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 56N 168W TONIGHT. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA EARLY WED MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-231145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1257 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 55N.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

010 
FZAK62 PAFC 230038
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231445-
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW AT 58N 172E MOVES TO 57N 172W WED MORNING AT 1003 MB
AND DISSIPATES. A FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED MORNING
AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY THU. THE ASSOCIATED 971 MB
LOW NEAR 55N 165E LATE WED NIGHT MOVES TO 57N 173E AT 976 MB THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 36 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 55N.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS  9 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The flow pattern aloft looks different, yet still the same this
morning. A baggy weak trough stretches from Kamchatka eastward
thorough the mainland with no real center or organization at all.
The active jet stream extends from east Asia through the northern
Pacific where several disturbances are combining south of the
Alaska Peninsula to re-orient the longwave pattern. A blocking
high pressure sits over the Arctic Ocean leaving much of our
forecast area under weak flow aloft.

The remnants of a dying upper low are moving inland over the
northern Gulf with the main effect being rain/snow showers. A
disorganized front stretches from the Pribilof Islands eastward
leaving a showery regime over the eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While in good synoptic agreement, the track and position of a
surface low approaching Kodiak Island are still up for debate with
the EC/GEM further north/east and the NAM/GFS further south and
west. Impacts will be how strong the northerlies get on the back
side of the system around Kodiak Island. The amount of clear sky
has given every model/MOS guidance fits with the low temperatures
lately. Beyond that, the front entering the Bering today is well
agreed upon in timing/strength.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR cigs are expected through early afternoon. Cloud bases
lower but are expected to remain VFR from 00z until around 07z
this evening with light snow possible as a warm front crosses the
area from east to west. Ceilings should rise again with frontal
passage after 07z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of snow showers is moving inland over the north Gulf
Coast this morning ahead of a warm front moving slowly northward
in the Gulf of Alaska. These snow showers will mix with or turn to
rain as temperatures warm up this afternoon. Kodiak Island will
likely get some snow this morning that turns to rain by the
afternoon with this warm front.

The timing of the front has been a little bit of a challenge as it
is associated with an elongating low which has thrown some doubt
into exactly how fast the front will move and how the low
structure will look as it becomes complex, with multiple centers, over
the next two days. The area of biggest uncertainty with all this
is over and south of the Gulf of Alaska with inland areas not
affected as much with this situation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The offshore pressure gradient will strengthen throughout the day
today which will allow northerly winds of 5 to 15 mph to be common
across much of Southwest Alaska. This will help keep fog at bay
this morning and future mornings as drier air from the interior is
advected southward. Another feature of the offshore flow is that
it will keep any snow chances at bay through at least the first
half of the week as the moisture aloft (especially within the
first several thousand feet above sea-level) diminishes significantly
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures appear likely to remain
slightly below normal through the forecast period with the
reinforcing shot of cold air from the arctic already evident
based on temperatures across much of the state this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The complex weather system yesterday with multiple low centers
across the southern Bering Sea and North Pacific is a thing of
the past. As expected, the low pressure systems have phased into a
single surface low south of the Alaska Peninsula which has been
quite evident on IR imagery and scatterometer data. A nice swath
of gale force winds will be seen near the Central Aleutians
through this afternoon before a weak ridge moves over the southern
Bering Sea. While this weak ridge will bring a brief reprieve of
strong winds and moderate to heavy rain to the Western and Central
Aleutians, an area of low pressure over the Kamchatka Peninsula will
strengthen. This low will push a gale force front across the
western Bering Sea late tonight into Monday morning and will
continue to move eastward into the eastern Bering Sea by Tuesday
morning. Luckily, by the time the low pressure system moves into
the Bering Sea on Tuesday it will have already begun to weaken so
winds in excess of 45 kt are not expected at this time. However,
due to a persistent and dynamic fetch, seas approaching or
possibly exceeding 35 ft will be possible over the western Bering
Sea on Tuesday. A decent moisture anomaly should accompany the
front as it moves into the Bering Sea which will likely produce
another shot of moderate to heavy rainfall across the Bering Sea
and Aleutians yet again.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

From previous discussion...

The active pattern will continue through next week with multiple
lows moving across the forecast area. However, the storm track
looks to largely stay south of mainland Alaska with lows moving
across the Aleutians and then into the Gulf. This setup will keep
most of the precipitation and warm air out of the mainland with
coastal areas seeing the majority of the precipitation. Although
the models disagree somewhat on the timing of the various lows,
they are in decent agreement with the position of the storm track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...119 120 130 132 138 139 150 155 165 173-178 185
				 411-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
AVIATION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK