Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

796 
WWUS54 KTSA 192135
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKC091-101-192200-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-150419T2200Z/
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
435 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RENTIESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...KEEFETON AND WARNER

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 266 AND 278.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 9549 3556 9553 3565 9534 3543 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 263DEG 21KT 3551 9544

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WAS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXES...ONE WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND A SECOND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WAS AIDING IN THE
INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION.

CURRENT THINKING ON STORM PROGRESSION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME FROM THE LATE MORNING FORECAST
DISCUSSION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE GREATEST OVER THE CWA. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING
HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE POTENTIAL. COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE TWO VORT MAXES WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER ALL OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH WITH THE AMOUNT OF VORTICITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GOES TIL O1Z.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND
THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND GETS ABSORBED WITHIN A CLOSED LOW DROPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXITING THE CWA
AROUND 06Z. ANY REMAIN PRECIP AFTER 06Z LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH
FROM THE INSTABILITY THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE FINALLY EXITING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-30 MPH
RANGE WILL BE CAPABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WAS
LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS
THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SAGS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUSHING IT INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT WAS PROGGED 24-HRS AGO. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY...GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE CWA. THE FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DRYLINE LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA. AGAIN
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  66  47  68 /  20   0  10  30
FSM   48  68  48  70 /  40   0  10  30
MLC   47  69  45  70 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   42  67  41  68 /  20   0  10  30
FYV   43  62  40  65 /  50   0   0  30
BYV   45  62  42  66 /  60   0   0  30
MKO   44  67  46  68 /  20   0  10  30
MIO   44  64  42  66 /  40   0   0  30
F10   45  67  45  68 /  20   0  20  30
HHW   48  70  46  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...3 PM TO 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...2 PM TO 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
        CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO AN UNSETTLED STATE.  THIS WILL RETURN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ064>066-192130-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
352 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CREEK AND WESTERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 352 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WELTY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...WILSON...MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY AND OKMULGEE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3566 9598 3544 9604 3555 9654 3573 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 282DEG 26KT 3562 9641

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ054-059-064-192130-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
354 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 354 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SKEDEE TO 14 MILES WEST OF
DRUMRIGHT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OSAGE...HOMINY...JENNINGS...
TERLTON...HALLETT...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...SKEDEE...CLEVELAND...
WESTPORT...MILFAY...DEPEW...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON...SILVER
CITY...MANNFORD...QUAY AND WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3645 9670 3639 9620 3567 9655 3571 9663
      3615 9663 3615 9682 3621 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 299DEG 27KT 3632 9665 3596 9684

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ067-068-070-192145-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER

AT 410 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF TULLAHASSEE TO 6 MILES WEST OF
MUSKOGEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...
TULLAHASSEE...OKAY...MUSKOGEE...FORT GIBSON AND SEQUOYAH STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3604 9503 3574 9513 3569 9553 3592 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 254DEG 36KT 3589 9539 3574 9545

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ070-071-192145-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
411 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MUSKOGEE

AT 412 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF CHECOTAH TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
STIDHAM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...ONAPA...
RENTIESVILLE...OKTAHA AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3561 9536 3533 9548 3529 9578 3555 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 250DEG 26KT 3552 9560 3535 9568

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 35.09N 94.35W
04/19/2015  E2.00 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

            FROM TWITTER...TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             4 W CHECOTAH            35.47N 95.59W
04/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

LACY