Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
KMLC...KFSM...KFYV...KXNA...KROG. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AT KTUL...KRVS...AND KBVO...JUST LESS
LIKELY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 30-35 KTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION. SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. /SA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THE STABILIZED AIRMASS IS 2-3KFT DEEP AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NE OK. UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
SW OK AND WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX REMAINS OVER FAR NW OK
AND BOTH ZONES OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
LIFT IN THEIR ADVANCE.

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...HOWEVER EVEN THIS
REGION MAY BE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD. FURTHER
NORTH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE INSTABILITY RECOVERY DESPITE
INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL /AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
KEEPING THE TORNADIC THREAT LIMITED. FURTHER NORTH A MIXTURE OF
MULTICELL AND PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE BACKGROUND VORTICITY FIELDS MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY STORMS
FURTHER NORTH...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LARGELY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ANY TOR THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS
THIS REGION. OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBPAGE WILL CNOTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  66  48 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   75  49  70  48 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  48  70  44 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   68  43  67  41 /  60  10  10   0
FYV   69  44  62  41 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   69  46  63  43 /  50  60  10   0
MKO   71  45  67  46 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   65  46  65  43 /  50  30  10   0
F10   72  47  68  46 /  50  10   0  10
HHW   73  50  70  44 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...3 PM TO 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...2 PM TO 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
        CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO AN UNSETTLED STATE.  THIS WILL RETURN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ064>066-192130-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
352 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CREEK AND WESTERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 352 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WELTY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...WILSON...MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY AND OKMULGEE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3566 9598 3544 9604 3555 9654 3573 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 282DEG 26KT 3562 9641