River Flood Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

107 
WGUS84 KTSA 191019
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County. 
  
OKC079-191049-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150419T2000Z/
/PANO2.1.ER.150419T1141Z.150419T1200Z.150419T1400Z.NO/
519 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Poteau River near Panama.
* At 4:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 28.29 feet.
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested below flood stage and is
  expected to continue a slow fall.

 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3521 9470 3504 9462 3523 9442 3540 9439 3540 9449

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WENT
WITH A TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AT 04Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE LATEST HRRR IS PROJECTING.
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AT THE NORTHWEST ARKSANS
SITES...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPROVING MID-MORNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW A DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS DRYLINE...MOVING TO THE NORTH. TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE PRECIP FROM
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO THE CLOSED OFF LOW THAT IT HAS BEEN.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEGIN THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING LOWS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO BE WEAK. AN ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL AID IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA WILL HELP TO DELAY THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.
INCREASING MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-130KT
PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE
COOLER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN FORECAST WHICH COULD LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST DATA AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...STORMS ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
INITIALLY...WITH AN EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A LINE WITH A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL
INCREASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FROM ROUGHLY 2 PM TO 10 PM. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVER INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SUPERCELL
STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
EXIT THE REGION AS THE FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE RETURN
IN A NW FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

OKZ064-065-190230-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
837 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 837 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES WEST OF MILFAY TO 9 MILES WEST OF PADEN TO 33
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OKEMAH...
BEARDEN...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY...
BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...DEPEW...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT AND OILTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9663 3616 9657 3577 9621 3528 9624
      3529 9645 3545 9645 3545 9648 3543 9649
      3545 9655 3543 9655 3540 9653 3539 9654
      3540 9658 3540 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 239DEG 27KT 3579 9697 3553 9669
          3509 9683