River Flood Warning 59, NWS Tulsa, OK

287 
WGUS84 KTSA 181356
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Spring River near Quapaw affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-182156-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0059.150619T1816Z-150621T1617Z/
/QUAO2.1.ER.150619T1816Z.150620T1200Z.150621T1017Z.NO/
856 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spring River near Quapaw.
* from Friday afternoon to Sunday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 10.59 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Spring River near Quapaw is expected to rise above 
  flood stage early Friday afternoon and continue to rise to near 
  23.7 feet by Saturday morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, park and recreational areas downstream from 
  the gage site experience moderate flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3695 9481 3682 9481 3682 9469 3695 9469

$$

634 
WGUS84 KTSA 181925
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Spring River near Quapaw affecting Ottawa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-190325-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0056.150618T2117Z-150620T1920Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.150618T2117Z.150620T0000Z.150620T1320Z.NO/
225 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Saturday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Thursday, the stage was 14.59 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce is expected to rise above
  flood stage late this afternoon and continue to rise to near 17.0 
  feet by Friday evening. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. Riverview
  Park experiences minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9510 3681 9488 3689 9478 3700 9491

$$

OKC115-181955-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-150621T1617Z/
/QUAO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
225 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Spring River near Quapaw.
* At  1:00 PM Thursday, the stage was 11.43 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Spring River near Quapaw will crest below flood 
  stage at 14.9 feet Saturday morning. Observed rainfall was less 
  than anticipated, and therefore, the river will remain below flood 
  stage.  


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM "BILL"...WHICH HAD SHOWN A SLOW EASTWARD
JOG EARLIER TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS JOHNSTON COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN OK. LATEST RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALL
BULLSEYE ANALYZED WEST OF MLC. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF ITS TRACK...WITH 5 TO
ALMOST 11 INCHES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS...WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TO NORTH OF MLC TOWARD 18Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NW AR 00-06Z.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND THE TRACK OF "BILL"...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
(AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) OF RAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH STILL
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST
AR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE URGED
TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.

AN ELONGATED WEST-EAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER...BUT HAVE
KEPT RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  69  85  71 / 100  50  20  10
FSM   79  71  84  71 / 100  90  40  20
MLC   78  70  84  73 / 100  60  20  10
BVO   79  68  85  70 /  90  40  20  10
FYV   76  69  77  69 / 100 100  60  20
BYV   77  67  78  70 / 100 100  90  20
MKO   78  68  82  71 / 100  80  30  10
MIO   78  68  82  70 / 100  90  30  10
F10   78  69  84  72 / 100  50  20  10
HHW   80  71  86  73 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
512 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL.
EXCESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS
ZONE REACHING THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE.  THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE FLOODING WITH MAY PROVE LIFE
THREATENING IN SOME INSTANCES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.  AGAIN...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES.

MANY RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN FULL FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.  THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SOME RIVERS...
AND SIGNIFICANT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES.

AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT.  THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL EITHER
DEVELOP OR WORSEN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE
TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

OKZ062-068-180345-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

AT 1005 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRYOR...LOCUST GROVE...
SALINA...ADAIR AND SNOWDALE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3637 9544 3651 9543 3651 9522 3616 9501
      3610 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 145DEG 27KT 3617 9510