Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Tulsa, OK

881 
WGUS74 KTSA 181922
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

OKC001-021-041-061-091-097-101-131-135-145-182300-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0089.000000T0000Z-150618T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER OK-ADAIR OK-
222 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ADAIR...WAGONER...
SEQUOYAH...SOUTHERN ROGERS...MUSKOGEE...MAYES...EASTERN MCINTOSH...
NORTHERN HASKELL...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS 
ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY THIS 
AFTERNOON. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
EUFAULA...JAY...MUSKOGEE...PRYOR...SALLISAW...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...
TULSA...WAGONER...ADAIR STATE PARK...BARON...BOYNTON...BRAGGS...
BRIARTOWN...BRUSHY...BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK...BUNCH...CATOOSA...
CHECOTAH...CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...CHLOETA...CHOUTEAU...
CHRISTIE...COLCORD...COOKSON...COUNCIL HILL...COWETA...ELDON...FORT
GIBSON AND GANS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 9447 3534 9471 3536 9475 3533 9479
      3527 9545 3529 9546 3530 9550 3526 9551
      3525 9563 3572 9571 3573 9574 3590 9578
      3616 9576 3616 9581 3625 9581 3653 9462

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ALSO OVER THE
REGION...GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO WEST
WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VARYING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN IFR TO VFR WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE LOWER CATEGORIES WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TRY TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM "BILL"...WHICH HAD SHOWN A SLOW EASTWARD
JOG EARLIER TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS JOHNSTON COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN OK. LATEST RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALL
BULLSEYE ANALYZED WEST OF MLC. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF ITS TRACK...WITH 5 TO
ALMOST 11 INCHES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS...WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TO NORTH OF MLC TOWARD 18Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NW AR 00-06Z.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND THE TRACK OF "BILL"...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
(AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) OF RAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH STILL
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST
AR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE URGED
TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.

AN ELONGATED WEST-EAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER...BUT HAVE
KEPT RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  69  85  71 / 100  50  20  10
FSM   79  71  84  71 / 100  90  40  20
MLC   78  70  84  73 / 100  60  20  10
BVO   79  68  85  70 /  90  40  20  10
FYV   76  69  77  69 / 100 100  60  20
BYV   77  67  78  70 / 100 100  90  20
MKO   78  68  82  71 / 100  80  30  10
MIO   78  68  82  70 / 100  90  30  10
F10   78  69  84  72 / 100  50  20  10
HHW   80  71  86  73 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
511 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
				INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
				ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ALSO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS AND ALSO WORSEN ALREADY ONGOING FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING AND
THE RISING OF LOCAL LAKE LEVELS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN TODAY
INTO FRIDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMBINED WITH WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCLUDE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAINLY OVER LOCATIONS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FRIDAY AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL BEGIN TO EXIT
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO END FRIDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PROVIDE A
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY
TO ONGOING FLOODING AND INCREASING RIVER FLOODING TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E HECTORVILLE         35.84N 95.87W
06/18/2015                   OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODED ROADWAY AT HECTORVILLE ROAD AND BIXBY ROAD IN
            NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/18/2015                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER REPORTEDLY FLOWING OVER MEMORIAL AT 121ST IN SOUTH
            TULSA.

&&

BAS