Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Topeka, KS

103 
WWUS53 KTOP 050602
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
102 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSC061-149-161-197-050630-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-150605T0630Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
102 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
WABAUNSEE...GEARY...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHERN RILEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1258 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BELVUE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. GEORGE TO
WAKEFIELD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...JUNCTION CITY...BELVUE...MILFORD...MILFORD LAKE...ST. MARYS...
OGDEN...MCFARLAND...PAXICO...MAPLE HILL...GRANDVIEW PLAZA AND
VOLLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 290 AND 342.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3940 9607 3925 9603 3913 9604 3913 9600
      3907 9599 3894 9628 3891 9693 3898 9692
      3897 9695 3899 9696 3927 9696 3922 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 315DEG 21KT 3925 9614 3913 9648
          3920 9694

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

19Z surface observations now indicate the outflow boundary has
pushed through much if not all of the forecast area. An inverted
trough axis stretched from southwest KS into north central KS.
Meanwhile south and southeasterly winds continue to advect dewpoints
around 70 degrees in between the trough axis and outflow boundaries.
There is a MCV noted in the profiler data over northeast KS moving
into northwest MO. Upstream over western KS and eastern CO there is
no obvious wave or MCV noted in the water vapor or profiler data.

For tonight and Friday, I'm not all that confident in location and
timing of possible heavy rainfall. However I think there is a
reasonable chance for another MCS to develop and move across north
central and northeast KS. Because of this have extended the flash
flood watch through Friday morning. Models show some slight
amplification to the mid level ridge axis over TX and OK but do not
prog a significant increase in warm air at 700MB. Because of this
think the environment remains favorable for another convective
complex to round the ridge overnight. With no obvious large scale
forcing evident, thinking is forcing for convection is likely to
come from the low level jet and isentropic upglide. High res
solutions that have been inconsistent at best, suggest initiation
along the inverted trough axis across western KS this afternoon.
Meanwhile regional radars show thunderstorms increasing in coverage
across southern NEB. However storms evolve, am not sure surface
based storms are all that likely across the forecast area given the
the meso high currently over the area. There should be more than
enough instability with current MUCAPE values between 1000 and 4000
J/kg and deep layer shear is forecast to be around 35 KTS. With this
in mind think there remains a large hail risk to go along with the
flash flooding potential. If a storm is able to become rooted in the
boundary layer, there could be an isolated tornado along or just
behind the outflow boundary.

Have not gone to far astray from the model consensus for lows
tonight and highs Friday. Have lows in the mid to upper 60s
anticipating some rain cooled air overnight. Highs Friday are
expected to be in the lower 80s across northeast KS where precip
chances are highest with upper 80s over central KS. The temp
forecast tomorrow is highly dependent on how thunderstorms evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

With front/outflow likely still in area, at least some chance for
convection will persist into Friday night. Will of course need to
watch for at least pulse severe storms and any training for
additional localized flooding. By Saturday morning, incoming
shortwave in the northern branch should bring the synoptic boundary
north for decreasing chances through the day, with apparent temps
pushing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Next front then sinks
southeast late Saturday night into Sunday, with Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night presenting another severe weather and locally
heavy rain chance. Instability again pushes to around 3000 J/kg
though shear not impressive. Front should slowly sink south into the
early week periods with modest northwest flow developing aloft for
generally decreasing chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

First batch of thunderstorms along the NE border will probably
stay north of the TAF sites early this evening. A second area of
thunderstorms will develop across southwest NE and northwest KS.
These storms may move into the terminals after midnight. Low
confidence in the track and ti mining of these storms caused me to
place at VCTS in TAFS from 5Z through 18Z FRI. Most of the time
ceilings from any cloud cover will be VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-052100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
357 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT IN THIS AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE BIG
BLUE...LITTLE BLUE...AND BLACK VERMILLION RIVERS AND THE MILL
CREEK NEAR WASHINGTON. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE SILVER LAKE        39.13N 95.82W
06/04/2015                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ENTIRE TREES KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FLOOD            CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
06/05/2015                   CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N CENTRALIA           39.75N 96.13W
06/05/2015                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WEYER CREEK IS 1 FOOT DEEP RUNNING ACROSS K-187.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E RILEY               39.30N 96.81W
06/05/2015                   RILEY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS 5 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES SNAPPED. ESTIMATED
            WIND GUSTS 60-65 MPH.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1253 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND GST     MANHATTAN AIRPORT       39.16N 96.67W
06/05/2015  E63 MPH          RILEY              KS   ASOS

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     TSTM WND GST     MANHATTAN AIRPORT       39.16N 96.67W
06/05/2015  M73 MPH          RILEY              KS   ASOS

&&

BAERG