River Flood Warning 51, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 507 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

Very large convective complex continues to slowly shift southeast
of the area, although additional convective elements have been
forming along elevated boundaries and convergent zones. Rainfall
rates within the stronger convection have been very impressive,
but we have also seen a gradual weakening trend as instability
wanes amidst convective overturning. Through mid morning, the low
level jet will veer and while some flow up and over the outflow
may provide lift for additional showers and storms, expect a
general decrease in coverage through mid morning. The wild card is
activity over north central KS, but feel that this will have
trouble progressing much farther east where the atmosphere has
been worked over. All told, expect some additional rainfall which
will certainly not help the flooding situation, but outside of a
few localized areas the additional rainfall amounts should be less
than a half inch through mid morning.

This afternoon and evening offers another scenario for re-
development of strong thunderstorms in association with the
remnant outflow from this morning's activity. The details of this
development, as with previous days, are tricky and somewhat
unknown. The outflow will be quite a bit farther south than
yesterday across eastern KS. Short wave energy is likely to remain
focused north of the area, so the late day development may be a
bit more in question than previous days. At the same time, do
expect a rather unstable airmass and an intensifying LLJ after
dark, so suspect that at least scattered thunderstorms will
develop with some potential for one or more convective clusters to
impact the area once again. Any additional rainfall would quickly
produce flash flooding as nearly the entire forecast area is
saturated at this point and creeks and streams are very swollen or
flooding. So, if storms develop, expect another day of hail and
damaging wind potential along with flash flood potential. Due to
the uncertain nature of coverage/location of these storms, have
not extended the flash flood watch at this time and will monitor
the situation through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 507 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

Expect additional convective complexes to run the edge of the
ridge on Saturday into Saturday night. Will once again have ample
instability and marginal shear...and the track of any complexes
will likely be tied to any outflow that may be laid across the
forecast area. On Sunday, a stronger upper wave remains on track
to cross the Northern Plains and drag a synoptic front across the
area. This will provide yet another chance for thunderstorms.
This period may offer another potential window for very heavy
rainfall as the front is forecast to move just south of the
forecast area before stalling out. The LLJ is currently forecast
to be quite veered owing to the passage of the upper trough, but
could focus some extra lift over the local area for a time.

Due to ongoing severe weather and flooding, little to no changes
were made to the long term forecast for Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

Main complex of thunderstorms have moved east out of the area
leaving VFR ceilings.  More scattered storms are moving east across
the area, but should stay south of the terminals.  Things should
stay VFR most the day, but another round of storms is possible again
this afternoon and tonight.  Right now, have only included VCTS
after 00Z due to uncertainties in timing and coverage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-061045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
539 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL WORSEN THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
COMING WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...AND WORSEN THE RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LILLIS                  39.61N 96.30W
06/05/2015  M3.51 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
752 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WSW CORNING             39.66N 96.03W
06/05/2015  M7.15 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
806 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILTONVALE              39.35N 97.45W
06/05/2015  M3.37 INCH       CLOUD              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
813 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     HEAVY RAIN       E ST. MARYS             39.19N 96.07W
06/05/2015  M3.65 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

EH

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