Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Topeka, KS

387 
WWUS53 KTOP 050220
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
920 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSC177-050245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150605T0245Z/
SHAWNEE-
920 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
SHAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF 
TOPEKA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. AT 916 PM...SPOTTERS ESTIMATED 
60 MPH WINDS AT INTERSTATE 70 AND AUBURN ROAD.  

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOPEKA...PAULINE AND TECUMSEH.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 175 AND 184.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 347 AND 355.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3895 9559 3898 9595 3909 9594 3906 9559
      3905 9558 3906 9557 3906 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 281DEG 18KT 3904 9577

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

19Z surface observations now indicate the outflow boundary has
pushed through much if not all of the forecast area. An inverted
trough axis stretched from southwest KS into north central KS.
Meanwhile south and southeasterly winds continue to advect dewpoints
around 70 degrees in between the trough axis and outflow boundaries.
There is a MCV noted in the profiler data over northeast KS moving
into northwest MO. Upstream over western KS and eastern CO there is
no obvious wave or MCV noted in the water vapor or profiler data.

For tonight and Friday, I'm not all that confident in location and
timing of possible heavy rainfall. However I think there is a
reasonable chance for another MCS to develop and move across north
central and northeast KS. Because of this have extended the flash
flood watch through Friday morning. Models show some slight
amplification to the mid level ridge axis over TX and OK but do not
prog a significant increase in warm air at 700MB. Because of this
think the environment remains favorable for another convective
complex to round the ridge overnight. With no obvious large scale
forcing evident, thinking is forcing for convection is likely to
come from the low level jet and isentropic upglide. High res
solutions that have been inconsistent at best, suggest initiation
along the inverted trough axis across western KS this afternoon.
Meanwhile regional radars show thunderstorms increasing in coverage
across southern NEB. However storms evolve, am not sure surface
based storms are all that likely across the forecast area given the
the meso high currently over the area. There should be more than
enough instability with current MUCAPE values between 1000 and 4000
J/kg and deep layer shear is forecast to be around 35 KTS. With this
in mind think there remains a large hail risk to go along with the
flash flooding potential. If a storm is able to become rooted in the
boundary layer, there could be an isolated tornado along or just
behind the outflow boundary.

Have not gone to far astray from the model consensus for lows
tonight and highs Friday. Have lows in the mid to upper 60s
anticipating some rain cooled air overnight. Highs Friday are
expected to be in the lower 80s across northeast KS where precip
chances are highest with upper 80s over central KS. The temp
forecast tomorrow is highly dependent on how thunderstorms evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

With front/outflow likely still in area, at least some chance for
convection will persist into Friday night. Will of course need to
watch for at least pulse severe storms and any training for
additional localized flooding. By Saturday morning, incoming
shortwave in the northern branch should bring the synoptic boundary
north for decreasing chances through the day, with apparent temps
pushing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Next front then sinks
southeast late Saturday night into Sunday, with Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night presenting another severe weather and locally
heavy rain chance. Instability again pushes to around 3000 J/kg
though shear not impressive. Front should slowly sink south into the
early week periods with modest northwest flow developing aloft for
generally decreasing chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

First batch of thunderstorms along the NE border will probably
stay north of the TAF sites early this evening. A second area of
thunderstorms will develop across southwest NE and northwest KS.
These storms may move into the terminals after midnight. Low
confidence in the track and ti mining of these storms caused me to
place at VCTS in TAFS from 5Z through 18Z FRI. Most of the time
ceilings from any cloud cover will be VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-052100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
357 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT IN THIS AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE BIG
BLUE...LITTLE BLUE...AND BLACK VERMILLION RIVERS AND THE MILL
CREEK NEAR WASHINGTON. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
744 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE OLSBURG           39.51N 96.57W
06/04/2015  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
831 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ023-024-038-039-050200-
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
831 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 900 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE MAPLE HILL...DELIA...ROSSVILLE...WILLARD
AND SILVER LAKE.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 345 AND 352 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9576 3902 9585 3916 9628 3933 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 285DEG 24KT 3922 9610

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
836 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BAILEYVILLE             39.84N 96.18W
06/04/2015  E1.50 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

            SINCE 655PM.

&&

BAERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
846 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ011-023-024-026-038-039-050215-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
846 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...JACKSON
AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 915 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...JACKSON
AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CIRCLEVILLE...SILVER
LAKE...POTAWATOMI
RESERVATION...MERIDEN...MAYETTA...HOYT...HOLTON...DENISON AND
NORTHERN TOPEKA.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 9563 3908 9623 3961 9597 3955 9556
      3943 9556 3942 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 273DEG 16KT 3923 9593

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
850 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 WSW BEATTIE           39.84N 96.52W
06/04/2015  E1.40 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
911 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE ROSSVILLE         39.16N 95.94W
06/04/2015  E2.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

BAERG