Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Topeka, KS

779 
WGUS73 KTOP 051235
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
735 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSC045-059-087-139-051245-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150605T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
735 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN...WESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL
OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 735 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3856 9595 3881 9594 3881 9549 3906 9550
      3919 9533 3855 9531

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

19Z surface observations now indicate the outflow boundary has
pushed through much if not all of the forecast area. An inverted
trough axis stretched from southwest KS into north central KS.
Meanwhile south and southeasterly winds continue to advect dewpoints
around 70 degrees in between the trough axis and outflow boundaries.
There is a MCV noted in the profiler data over northeast KS moving
into northwest MO. Upstream over western KS and eastern CO there is
no obvious wave or MCV noted in the water vapor or profiler data.

For tonight and Friday, I'm not all that confident in location and
timing of possible heavy rainfall. However I think there is a
reasonable chance for another MCS to develop and move across north
central and northeast KS. Because of this have extended the flash
flood watch through Friday morning. Models show some slight
amplification to the mid level ridge axis over TX and OK but do not
prog a significant increase in warm air at 700MB. Because of this
think the environment remains favorable for another convective
complex to round the ridge overnight. With no obvious large scale
forcing evident, thinking is forcing for convection is likely to
come from the low level jet and isentropic upglide. High res
solutions that have been inconsistent at best, suggest initiation
along the inverted trough axis across western KS this afternoon.
Meanwhile regional radars show thunderstorms increasing in coverage
across southern NEB. However storms evolve, am not sure surface
based storms are all that likely across the forecast area given the
the meso high currently over the area. There should be more than
enough instability with current MUCAPE values between 1000 and 4000
J/kg and deep layer shear is forecast to be around 35 KTS. With this
in mind think there remains a large hail risk to go along with the
flash flooding potential. If a storm is able to become rooted in the
boundary layer, there could be an isolated tornado along or just
behind the outflow boundary.

Have not gone to far astray from the model consensus for lows
tonight and highs Friday. Have lows in the mid to upper 60s
anticipating some rain cooled air overnight. Highs Friday are
expected to be in the lower 80s across northeast KS where precip
chances are highest with upper 80s over central KS. The temp
forecast tomorrow is highly dependent on how thunderstorms evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

With front/outflow likely still in area, at least some chance for
convection will persist into Friday night. Will of course need to
watch for at least pulse severe storms and any training for
additional localized flooding. By Saturday morning, incoming
shortwave in the northern branch should bring the synoptic boundary
north for decreasing chances through the day, with apparent temps
pushing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Next front then sinks
southeast late Saturday night into Sunday, with Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night presenting another severe weather and locally
heavy rain chance. Instability again pushes to around 3000 J/kg
though shear not impressive. Front should slowly sink south into the
early week periods with modest northwest flow developing aloft for
generally decreasing chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

First batch of thunderstorms along the NE border will probably
stay north of the TAF sites early this evening. A second area of
thunderstorms will develop across southwest NE and northwest KS.
These storms may move into the terminals after midnight. Low
confidence in the track and ti mining of these storms caused me to
place at VCTS in TAFS from 5Z through 18Z FRI. Most of the time
ceilings from any cloud cover will be VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
209 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-060715-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
209 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A OSKALOOSA TO TOPEKA TO
COUNCIL GROVE LINE.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
223 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N ROSSVILLE           39.15N 95.95W
06/05/2015  E4.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            FELL OVER THE PAST 6.5 HOURS.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     TSTM WND GST     FORBES FIELD            38.96N 95.67W
06/05/2015  M55 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
06/05/2015  E3.10 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
06/05/2015  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     FLASH FLOOD      15 NW TOPEKA            39.20N 95.88W
06/05/2015                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RESIDENTS BEING EVACUATED DUE TO FLOODING ALONG THE
            LITTLE SOLDIER CREEK.

&&

BAERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSZ040-056-050900-
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 400 AM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN DOUGLAS AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE RANTOUL AND LANE.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 199 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9506 3842 9506 3857 9551 3883 9528
      3899 9517 3897 9513 3898 9511 3896 9509
      3898 9509 3899 9506 3898 9505 3886 9505
      3870 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 291DEG 39KT 3890 9493 3870 9500
          3854 9524

GARGAN