Severe Thunderstorm Warning 471, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

For the remainder of tonight, the main focus will be on southeast
Alabama and adjacent sections of the Florida panhandle and
southwest Georgia as bands of showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to stream off to the northeast. The airmass is very moist
for this time of year with 70 degree dewpoints as far north as
Troy, AL. Rainfall rates with the embedded convection are
impressive with EOX dual-pol estimating instantaneous rates of up
to 2-4"/hr, but so far the bands have not been concentrated
enough over any one location to produce any flash flooding. Having
said that, there has been some minor flooding reported across
Houston county with a few rural roads being closed.

Some of our local hi-res guidance later tonight into Thursday
morning is a bit concerning showing these bands persisting and
intensifying through the night. Some of the recent HRRR runs also
hint at this possibility. Should that occur, the threat for
flooding would increase as this would occur over already saturated
soils, but confidence in the evolution of this convection is not
overly high. We'll be watching for that possibility through the
night.

&&

.Prev Discussion [638 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The messy deep layer south/southwesterly flow will continue
through the short term. We'll likely remain cloudy with a chance
for showers and an isolated storm each day. Though with little to
no surface focus, at this time the threat for any meaningful
rainfall totals will remain west of the Tri-State region. Severe
weather is also not expected during the period. The most notable
item through Friday will be the near record breaking high
temperatures. The local area has a good chance of breaking daily
record max temps on Christmas, and possibly breaking the all time
December high temperature record. Overnight lows will also remain
unseasonably warm, in the middle 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned warm pattern, with scattered rain chances will
continue through the weekend. Early next week, models indicate
that a large low pressure system will roll through the Mississippi
Valley and force a cold front into the region. It remains unclear
whether the front will make a clean passage, or get held up and
bring an increased chance of rain through mid week.

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

Rain showers will continue this evening into tonight for all
terminals except for VLD. LIFR CIGs are likely tonight. IFR vis is
expected at most terminals with fog developing late tonight. By
mid-morning, conditions will improve to MVFR and rain will come to
an end. Winds will be southerly with gusts around 20 knots
possible on Thursday.

.Marine...

Southeast winds around 20 knots over the western waters this
evening will lower to cautionary levels after midnight. Winds and
seas over the western waters will approach 20 knots again this
weekend.

.Fire Weather...

Rainy conditions today and again this weekend will prevent
relative humidity values from dropping to critical levels. No red
flag conditions will occur for the next week.

.Hydrology...

This is the last round of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms
for the region through the holiday weekend. Precipitation this
afternoon and overnight will diminish tomorrow morning and end by
midday. Areas of heaviest rain for the remainder of the afternoon
and overnight will continue to train across southeast AL...far
southwest GA... and the FL panhandle west of the Apalachicola
River. The Flash Flood Watch for those areas will continue
overnight. In general rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 4 inches have
fallen in this area through midday today with an additional 1 to 3
inches possible through daybreak tomorrow. Locally higher amounts
may occur overnight as we could see rainfall rates of 3 to 4
inches per hour in some thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  79  65  81  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
Panama City   72  77  67  77  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
Dothan        70  78  66  80  64 /  80  40  30  10  10
Albany        67  79  66  82  63 /  60  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      71  81  65  83  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
Cross City    70  83  64  84  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  71  75  67  76  66 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday FOR Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
727 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE WEBB              31.27N 85.25W
12/23/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WALLACE BUIE ROAD BETWEEN CENTER CHURCH RD AND RANDALL
            WADE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0615 PM     FLOOD            5 SSW COWARTS           31.13N 85.34W
12/23/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HARVEST LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0615 PM     FLOOD            4 SSW COWARTS           31.15N 85.34W
12/23/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WILLIE VARNUM ROAD BETWEEN HARVEST LANE AND EDDINS ROAD
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0615 PM     FLOOD            2 WSW WEBB              31.25N 85.31W
12/23/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEACOCK ROAD BETWEEN WATSON BRIDGE ROAD AND OLD WEBB ROAD
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0615 PM     FLOOD            5 WNW COTTONWOOD        31.09N 85.37W
12/23/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HODGESVILLE ROAD BETWEEN HARPER JOY ROAD AND COUNTY ROAD
            33 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
759 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W PANAMA CITY BEACH   30.21N 85.88W
12/23/2015  M51 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            44 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT THE PCBF1 TIDE GAUGE

&&

DVD