Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern part of the region
will come to an end late this evening. Without a frontal passage, it
will remain warm and moist overnight. Expect fog to form late
tonight and into the morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory may be
issued overnight, but confidence is not high enough at this time.
Fog could make early morning travel difficult, perhaps even
dangerous if visibility is extremely poor. Lows tonight will be in
the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Very warm weather with record breaking high temperatures expected
for both Christmas and Saturday as deep layer ridging builds in from
the east. Low level flow will be southerly which will not only keep
our minimum temps elevated well above seasonal levels but also bring
a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly over our
western zones. Also with dew points in the lower to mid 60s,
widespread areas of fog (possibly dense) will develop in the late
evening and overnight hours. High temperatures both days will
range from the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid
60s.

The following are current record max temps for Christmas and December
26th that are in jeopardy of being tied or broken:

Record high temps for 12/25...
Tallahassee...80...multiple times with last occurrence 1984
Apalachicola...79/1984
Albany...80/1964
Valdosta...81/2008

Record high temps for 12/26...
Tallahassee...79...multiple times with last occurrence 1987
Apalachicola...78/1984
Albany...81/1942
Valdosta...79/2008

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A deep upper low centered over northern Mexico Sunday will eject
rapidly to the northeast early next week and push a cold front
into the local area Monday and Monday night. The front is expected
to stall over or near the Tri-state region Tuesday before getting
nudged to our south late in the week. This will keep rain chances
in the forecast through the extended period. Cooler but not cold
temperatures should arrive by Wednesday in the wake of the cold
front. Until then, temps will be well above seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] LIFR and IFR conditions are expected late
tonight into the morning. Otherwise, conditions will be mostly
MVFR. Rain near DHN and ABY will move out of the region by
morning. Areas of fog are expected late tonight into the morning
hours. Winds will be moderate and southerly.

&&

.Marine...

Light to moderate south to southeast winds are forecast to
continue into early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will remain high for the next several days. No
fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Training cells dumped a significant amount of rain over Coffee
County overnight, with 12 hour accumulations close to 10 inches.
This has led to Flash Flooding in the county as well as significant
rises on the Pea River. Ariton has reached moderate flood stage and
Elba is forecast to reach moderate flood later today. Elsewhere,
river rises will continue, with even the main stem rivers getting in
on the action eventually as water is routed from north/central
Georgia.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  83  62  83  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   67  78  64  79  66 /  40  10  10  10  10
Dothan        67  81  63  82  64 /  40  10  10  20  10
Albany        65  81  63  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      65  84  63  84  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
Cross City    66  84  64  83  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  66  76  65  77  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     FLOOD            ELBA                    31.41N 86.07W
12/24/2015                   COFFEE             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 87 NORTH OF ELBA IS CLOSED DUE TO THE PEA RIVER
            REACHING BRIDGE LEVEL.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     FLOOD            3 WSW ARITON            31.58N 85.76W
12/24/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY ROAD 205 IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON THE ROAD.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELBA                    31.41N 86.07W
12/24/2015                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            15 ROADS CLOSED IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     FLOOD            ELBA                    31.41N 86.07W
12/24/2015                   COFFEE             AL   PUBLIC

            PEA RIVER HAS FLOODED PICNIC AREA OF PEA RIVER PARK IN
            ELBA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

EWESTON