Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1051 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer south/southwesterly flow continues across the Southeast
this morning. Satellite and obs data seems to show that the
baroclinic boundary generated by convection through the day
yesterday, moved north through the night as a mesoscale warm
front. As it did so, it coupled with a LLJ over the same region,
and favorable deep layer shear to generate a few supercells. With
a couple possible tornadoes linked to the warm front. This
boundary has since pushed out of the Tri-State region, and robust
convection has come to an end. However, the continued weak
synoptic forcing from a southern stream wave is allowing for a few
showers to form behind the mesoscale boundary. There is still
enough low-layer shear to cause some organization to these
showers and a low-end tornado threat will continue for another
hour or so. If a tornado were to form it would likely be short-
lived and rather weak.

In addition to the waning severe threat, the threat for anymore
flash flooding has essentially come to an end as well. Coffee and
Dale counties, that were hit hardest last night, may see a
scattering of showers the remainder of the afternoon but it is
unlikely that they will be heavy enough to aggravate the current
conditions further. River flooding on the other hand will plague
the Choctawhatchee and Pea rivers in southeast Alabama for the
next several days. With moderate flooding likely, possibly even
major flooding at Bruce on the Choctawhatchee early next week.

As far as the PoP forecast for the remainder of the afternoon is
concerned, hires models continue to struggle with the event. Based
on trends and the most representative models, expect only light to
moderate scattered showers to continue west of the Apalachicola
and Flint rivers through the first part of the afternoon.
Thereafter, showers should start to taper off for the remainder of
the afternoon/night. Even with the departure of showers, cloud
cover is expected to keep the entire Tri-State region socked in
for the next few days.

The cloud cover won't save us from breaking temperature records
however. Upper 70s to low 80s are expected to flirt with or break
daily max temp records today. Record high low temperature records
are also in danger of being broken. For some more perspective,
overnight lows are generally expected to be at or near what should
be normal high temperatures this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

IFR ceilings continue at all terminals except DHN. It is unclear
whether ceilings will lift to VFR levels today at sites currently
under IFR, but they are expected to at least reach MVFR. DHN
should lift to VFR later this afternoon. Expect IFR/LIFR to
overspread all terminals later tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [529 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Very warm weather will continue into the weekend as the western
Atlantic ridge dominates the pattern over the southeastern states.
While there is no chance of a white Christmas, at least it won't
be wet, with dry conditions expected across the forecast area.
Temperatures will flirt with all-time December records. The
current forecast high for Tallahassee for Christmas is 83, one
degree short of the monthly record high.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Deep upper low will eventually eject from the southern Plains
early next week and push a cold front towards the northeastern
Gulf Coast. Expect rain chances to increase Monday into Tuesday,
with unsettled wx through the middle of the week as the front
hangs up in the vicinity before pushing clear late in the week.

.Marine...
Winds and seas will diminish some today as high pressure builds
back towards the waters from the east. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds are forecast to continue into early next
week.

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns.

.Hydrology...
Training cells dumped a significant amount of rain over Coffee
County overnight, with 12 hour accumlations close to 10 inches.
This has led to Flash Flooding in the county as well as
significant rises on the Pea River. Ariton is now expected to
reach moderate flood stage later today. Elsewhere, river rises
will continue, with even the main stem rivers getting in on the
action eventually as water is routed from north/central Georgia.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  66  83  63  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   77  68  77  67  76 /  30  10  10  10  20
Dothan        79  67  80  64  79 /  60  30  20  10  10
Albany        79  66  81  61  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  65  82  63  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    84  65  84  65  79 /   0  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  76  67  75  66  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP