Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 499

August 22, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 22, 2015, 3:48 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 22, 2015, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Aug 23, 2015, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 111 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Warren County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Miami County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Smith County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO, Adams County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Gage County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Polk County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
95%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
50%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 22, 4:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXHarrison, Monona30 min
Aug 22, 5:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Saline27 min
Aug 22, 5:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Jefferson35 min
Aug 22, 6:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXPottawattamie29 min
Aug 22, 6:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Jefferson47 min
Aug 22, 6:47 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOAXGage3 hr
Aug 22, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills, Montgomery, Pottawattamie40 min
Aug 22, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Jefferson39 min
Aug 22, 7:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Washington51 min
Aug 22, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page25 min
Aug 22, 7:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Washington52 min
Aug 22, 8:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Washington47 min
Aug 22, 8:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley, Washington29 min
Aug 22, 8:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPPottawatomie, Riley46 min
Aug 22, 9:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXRinggold, Taylor47 min
Aug 22, 9:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Smith39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-08-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1047 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-08-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 194 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1047 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-293 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
629 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

252 
WWUS20 KWNS 222047
SEL9  
SPC WW 222047
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-230500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA
  NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
  WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
  CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
    GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
    EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE JOINED BY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN KS AND
NW MO A BIT LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO
ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS. THESE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
THEY MOVE GENERALLY S OR SE ACROSS NE KS...NW MO...AND SRN IA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
DENISON IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 22, 2:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cerro Gordo and 33 more62 min
Aug 22, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson and 21 more7 hr
Aug 22, 2:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 19 more65 min
Aug 22, 5:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cerro Gordo, Clay, Emmet, Franklin, Hamilton and 10 more83 min
Aug 22, 6:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Butler, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette and 4 more63 min
Aug 22, 6:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Clarke and 15 more84 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.