Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
201 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TSTM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AND TIMING OF PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN USUALLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED A 95 KNOT
JET MAX AT 300 MB DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO
WYOMING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE AROUND 70 METERS IN
EASTERN MONTANA. WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT
RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO OUR WEST AT 12Z WERE QUITE
WARM...14 TO 15 DEGREES C...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO
WEST TEXAS. THESE WILL DECREASE LATER. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS NOT
OVERLY HIGH...BUT ADEQUATE...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 16 DEGREES C AT
KLBF AND KOAX.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROUGHS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA DOWN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS HAD VEERED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE
WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF IT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO MONITOR.

STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AREA FROM NORTH AND
EAST OF OMAHA ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND ALSO DOWN INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-50 KNOTS WITH THE STORMS...AND ML CAPE
VALUES 1000-2500 J/KG. SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY BEFORE 10 OR 11 PM...
AND DROPS OFF AFTER THAT. PARAMETERS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR STORMS
TO INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLS...WITH THESE THEN FORMING/MERGING INTO
A LINE. TORNADOES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY NEAR ANY LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES.

LATER TONIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERS FOR A WHILE BEFORE
GETTING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. WE THEN EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GENERALLY USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. 500 MB RIDGE INITIALLY
OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY ON WILL TRY TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THREAT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THAT TIME. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE CONVECTION THEN BECOMING
VFR AFTER 02Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT

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