Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 179

May 16, 201527 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 16, 2015, 5:47 PM CDT for 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2015, 5:47 PM CDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2015, 10:40 PM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 27 counties

Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Montague County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 40%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 40%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 90%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Fisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor	47 min
May 16, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Haskell, Jones, Shackelford, Throckmorton	50 min
May 16, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	39 min
May 16, 7:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	36 min
May 16, 7:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Haskell, Jones, Shackelford, Throckmorton	46 min
May 16, 7:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	51 min
May 16, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Stephens	58 min
May 16, 7:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Young	52 min
May 16, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	51 min
May 16, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Shackelford	49 min
May 16, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Young	39 min
May 16, 8:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Taylor	46 min
May 16, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Stephens	60 min
May 16, 9:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Shackelford	45 min
May 16, 9:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan, Shackelford	48 min
May 16, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack	60 min
May 16, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Brown, Callahan, Coleman	46 min
May 16, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Eastland, Stephens	57 min
May 16, 10:20 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Shackelford	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 296 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 538 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 107 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 4.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 8:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 31 more	2 hr
May 15, 10:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 28 more	5 hr
May 16, 1:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 17 more	88 min
May 16, 11:57 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Baylor, Borden, Briscoe, Callahan, Childress and 36 more	2 hr
May 16, 12:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carson, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson and 6 more	89 min
May 16, 12:58 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 33 more	6 hr
May 16, 2:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Glasscock and 18 more	92 min
May 16, 3:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 24 more	94 min
May 16, 4:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Knox, Wichita and 1 more	8 hr
May 16, 5:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Collingsworth, Cooke and 13 more	95 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.