Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 656
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2015, 1:32 AM CDT for Beaver County, Ellis County, Harmon County, Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2015, 1:32 AM CDT (06:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2015, 3:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties
Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 414 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -41 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1962 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 70 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
086
ACUS11 KWNS 160633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160632
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-160800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...
VALID 160632Z - 160800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. AS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 174...PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CLEARED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW IN ERN CO
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES
WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE LOCATED. A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO THE WEST OF AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3
KM...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS
MOVES ENEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLES WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH SHORT BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/16/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 32990029 33230135 34130173 34940189 35910144 36960085
37080030 36869989 36189972 33529985 32990029SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 8:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Texas | 2 hr |
| May 15, 10:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaver | 5 hr |
| May 16, 10:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Garfield, Grant and 9 more | 95 min |
| May 16, 11:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman | 2 hr |
| May 16, 12:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron, Texas | 89 min |
| May 16, 12:58 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills and 2 more | 6 hr |
| May 16, 3:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Kay | 86 min |
| May 16, 3:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 42 more | 94 min |
| May 16, 4:00 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 37 more | 8 hr |
| May 16, 5:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 40 more | 95 min |
| May 16, 2:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Glasscock and 18 more | 92 min |
| May 16, 5:47 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Cooke and 21 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.