Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 656

May 16, 2015Beaver County, Ellis County, Harmon County, Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2015, 1:32 AM CDT for Beaver County, Ellis County, Harmon County, Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2015, 1:32 AM CDT (06:32 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2015, 3:00 AM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 414 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
414 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1962 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

086 
ACUS11 KWNS 160633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160632 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-160800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...

VALID 160632Z - 160800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. AS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 174...PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CLEARED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW IN ERN CO
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES
WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE LOCATED. A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO THE WEST OF AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3
KM...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS
MOVES ENEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLES WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH SHORT BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   32990029 33230135 34130173 34940189 35910144 36960085
            37080030 36869989 36189972 33529985 32990029

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 8:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Texas2 hr
May 15, 10:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver5 hr
May 16, 10:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Garfield, Grant and 9 more95 min
May 16, 11:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman2 hr
May 16, 12:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas89 min
May 16, 12:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBeaver, Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills and 2 more6 hr
May 16, 3:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Kay86 min
May 16, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 42 more94 min
May 16, 4:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 37 more8 hr
May 16, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 40 more95 min
May 16, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Glasscock and 18 more92 min
May 16, 5:47 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Cooke and 21 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.