Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 175

May 16, 20158 counties in Oklahoma; 39 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 16, 2015, 12:58 PM CDT for 8 counties in Oklahoma; 39 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2015, 12:58 PM CDT (17:58 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2015, 7:16 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 47 counties

Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Texas County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

46 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 1:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBriscoe17 min
May 16, 1:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Donley37 min
May 16, 2:04 PM CDTTornado WarningAMADonley41 min
May 16, 2:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley38 min
May 16, 2:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley, Sherman50 min
May 16, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WarningAMACollingsworth, Donley40 min
May 16, 2:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBriscoe, Swisher20 min
May 16, 2:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Carson, Donley, Randall49 min
May 16, 2:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCottle, Hall, Motley30 min
May 16, 2:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBriscoe, Hall, Motley35 min
May 16, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACimarron, Texas54 min
May 16, 3:06 PM CDTTornado WarningAMACollingsworth, Wheeler39 min
May 16, 3:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAHemphill, Wheeler41 min
May 16, 3:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACollingsworth, Wheeler41 min
May 16, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray23 min
May 16, 3:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBChildress, Cottle, Hall30 min
May 16, 3:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Roger Mills39 min
May 16, 3:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACollingsworth, Wheeler35 min
May 16, 3:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBChildress, Cottle37 min
May 16, 4:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills45 min
May 16, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNHarmon, Jackson47 min
May 16, 4:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGreer, Harmon, Jackson41 min
May 16, 4:52 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNBeckham23 min
May 16, 4:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMATexas37 min
May 16, 4:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills, Washita47 min
May 16, 5:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNFoard, Knox44 min
May 16, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNHarmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman49 min
May 16, 5:13 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNBeckham32 min
May 16, 5:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNFoard, Hardeman26 min
May 16, 5:25 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNJackson, Tillman35 min
May 16, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, Washita45 min
May 16, 5:41 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNBeckham, Custer, Washita34 min
May 16, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wilbarger31 min
May 16, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Custer, Roger Mills36 min
May 16, 5:59 PM CDTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatOUNJackson, Kiowa, Tillman31 min
May 16, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Knox42 min
May 16, 6:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNTillman47 min
May 16, 6:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNComanche, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman42 min
May 16, 6:27 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNComanche, Kiowa, Tillman33 min
May 16, 6:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman2 hr
May 16, 6:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Knox44 min
May 16, 6:50 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNTillman25 min
May 16, 6:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Kiowa, Tillman48 min
May 16, 7:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger39 min
May 16, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNArcher, Baylor, Wichita, Wilbarger36 min
May 16, 7:15 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNCotton, Tillman30 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1786 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

870 
WWUS20 KWNS 161753
SEL5  
SPC WW 161753
OKZ000-TXZ000-170100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN OKLAHOMA
  NORTHWESTERN TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM
  UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INITIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...BUT ALSO OVER WESTERN OK A BIT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...DIAL

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 8:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Texas2 hr
May 15, 10:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver5 hr
May 16, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Ellis, Harmon88 min
May 16, 10:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Garfield, Grant and 9 more95 min
May 16, 11:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman2 hr
May 16, 12:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas89 min
May 16, 3:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Kay86 min
May 16, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 42 more94 min
May 16, 4:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 37 more8 hr
May 16, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo and 40 more95 min
May 16, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Glasscock and 18 more92 min
May 16, 5:47 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Cooke and 21 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.