Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A line of
thunderstorms will continue to move from the northwest to the
southeast, during the next 12 hours. Thunderstorms within this line,
some possibly severe until around midnight CDT, will move mainly from
the southwest to the northeast. The Abilene terminal is under the
threat of these thunderstorms for the next several hours. Then, as
this line moves slowly to the southeast, other terminals will come
under the threat of this line. By sunrise tomorrow morning, this
line should be southeast of all terminals, except for perhaps the
Junction terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

UPDATE...

Severe thunderstorms possible across the northern part of West
Central Texas. Thunderstorms have developed across mainly the
western Big Country this afternoon. After coordination with the
Storm Prediction Center, we've issued Tornado Watch number 179.
This watch includes all our Big Country counties along and north
of Interstate 20. Plus, it includes all our counties falling along
a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. This watch continues until
11 PM CDT tonight. Recent Zone update includes this watch as a
headline, for those counties in this watch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Quick update to include a short discussion concerning the
potential for heavy rainfall tonight...

In addition to the severe weather threat, some of the
thunderstorms will contain locally heavy rainfall, which could
result in either minor local flooding, or localized flash flooding
mainly in urban areas. However, the threat does not appear to be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time as
rural areas can likely take more rainfall in an hour than we are
currently forecasting for the entire event tonight. The one area
of concern would be southeast of a Brownwood, to Menard, to
Junction line where the heaviest rainfall and possible training of
thunderstorms is expected occur tonight.

The previous discussion is included below.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Thunderstorms had already developed across the Texas Panhandle
south towards Lubbock earlier this afternoon. Additional
development is expected as upper level lift associated with a
powerful low ejecting northeast out of New Mexico interacts with a
surface dryline/Pacific cold front moving into our area this
evening. Models continue to hold most of the convection off until
after 6 PM for our area, but would not be surprised if isolated
storms tried to develop before 00Z in our western counties. With
very good deep layer shear of 45+kt spreads into the area and ML
CAPE values of greater than 2000 J/kg along and east of the
dryline, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to
quickly strengthen to severe levels. Models are in fairly good
agreement with thunderstorms initially developing across the Big
Country during the evening hours. Then, during the overnight
hours, we have the potential for additional development along the
Pacific front, generally south of a Cross Plains, to Ballinger, to
Barnhart line, as it moves southeast and interacts with a
strengthening LLJ. We will keep the mention of severe
thunderstorms mainly east of a Sweetwater to Brady line for the
evening hours for a couple of reasons. First, there is more
confidence in significant storm coverage east of that line
tonight. Secondly, once storms do impact areas farther south,
instability will be weaker, and thus the threat of severe weather
will be somewhat diminished.

For tomorrow, we can expect another warm, humid day. We will keep
a chance of showers and thunderstorms generally southeast of an
Abilene to Sterling City line as there may be lingering activity
early in the morning for our southeastern counties. And models do
show the possibility of new development along the Pacific
front/dryline as it retreats northward. However, coverage is
expected to be isolated to scattered with the later activity.

20

LONG TERM...

Monday into Saturday...

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday into
Saturday, with southwest flow aloft bringing in several
disturbances. The best chance of rain will be Monday night into
Tuesday night, and Thursday night into Friday as stronger short
waves pass northeast across the region. The dryline is indicated
to stay west of West Central Texas during the work week, but
storms developing off of it will certainly be able to move
northeast into West Central Texas. Afternoon GFS SB CAPES range
from 2000 to 3000 J/KG, so potential exists severe storms each
day.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  85  65  86  66 /  60  10  20  20  40
San Angelo 	 62  85  65  87  67 /  60  20  30  20  40
Junction 	 68  84  68  85  69 /  80  60  40  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Huber

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-171945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND DRYLINE APPROACH THE AREA. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD...TO BRADY...TO JUNCTION LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW AREAS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

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