Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 12, 2015, 3:33 PM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 4 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2015, 3:33 PM CDT (20:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 13, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 22 counties
Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Grand Forks County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 3:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau | 64 min |
| Aug 12, 4:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Roseau | 60 min |
| Aug 12, 4:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Pennington | 51 min |
| Aug 12, 5:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Polk | 47 min |
| Aug 12, 5:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Roseau | 48 min |
| Aug 12, 5:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen | 59 min |
| Aug 12, 6:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Hubbard, Wadena | 57 min |
| Aug 12, 6:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Cass, Crow Wing | 45 min |
| Aug 12, 7:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson, Marshall, Roseau | 66 min |
| Aug 12, 7:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Cass, Crow Wing | 46 min |
| Aug 12, 7:51 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Kittson, Marshall, Roseau | 39 min |
| Aug 12, 8:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau | 62 min |
| Aug 12, 8:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Cass, Crow Wing | 60 min |
| Aug 12, 9:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Marshall, Pennington, Red Lake | 65 min |
| Aug 12, 9:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Crow Wing | 16 min |
| Aug 12, 9:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Pennington, Polk, Red Lake | 63 min |
| Aug 12, 10:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Polk | 55 min |
| Aug 12, 10:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Polk | 63 min |
| Aug 12, 10:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Koochiching | 26 min |
| Aug 12, 11:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Koochiching, Saint Louis | 41 min |
| Aug 12, 11:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Koochiching | 25 min |
| Aug 12, 11:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Koochiching, Saint Louis | 40 min |
| Aug 12, 11:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Otter Tail, Wadena | 62 min |
| Aug 13, 12:42 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Otter Tail, Wadena | 48 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 40 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -386 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1826 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 217 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 1:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 10 more | 113 min |
| Aug 12, 5:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Crow Wing, Hubbard and 12 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 12, 6:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Sherburne, Stearns and 2 more | 54 min |
| Aug 12, 4:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Hettinger, Slope and 1 more | 59 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.